The Central Economic Work Will Draw Attention To Macroeconomic Regulation Or Multiple Objectives.

The central economic work conference is drawing attention from all sides. Last Friday (December 5th), the Central Political Bureau meeting revealed a signal that China's economic characteristics are "good resilience, full potential and large room for maneuver". After a week of fermentation, the stock market, which rose for two weeks in a row, broke 3000 points on Monday. For the economic policy and key areas in 2015, speculation has been surging from the top to the public.

According to reporters' understanding and prediction, China's macroeconomic regulation and control in 2015 will seek to balance the multiple objectives of steady growth, reform, structural adjustment and risk control. In terms of specific policies, the goal of economic growth or the reduction of the approximate rate, the reform of investment and financing system and the reform of mixed ownership will further speed up, and the major economic strategy such as "one belt and one road" will be implemented.

A prominent change in macroeconomic policy under the new normal conditions is that the macroeconomic objectives will show a pluralistic trend. Gao Peiyong, President of the Institute of Finance and economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that the new normal "new" has at least three meanings: first, the current economic situation in China has changed; secondly, the judgment of the situation has also changed; and thirdly, the decision-making level is adjusting the way of China's economic development. From 2008 to 2010, ensuring growth is an overriding task, but at present, China faces too many problems and the goal of macroeconomic policy can no longer be single. This means that the resources of China's macroeconomic policy must be allocated to multiple positions.

Based on this understanding, the economic growth target in 2015 has increased from 7.5% this year. Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, believes that the two reduction targets in history are "passive downgrades" under the downward pressure of the economy. Last year, the economy stood at more than 7.5%, and there was no reduction in power. This year the approximate rate is below 7.5%. And the target of 7.5% will be further increased next year.

First, the potential growth rate decline brought about by the change of population structure can not be violated. Two is the real estate investment downward pressure is bigger, capital construction alone. Three, with the Fed raising interest rates, monetary easing is constrained. Taking into account the rapid growth in the past few years to achieve the two doubling target in 2020, we need to maintain a 6.6% growth rate in the next 5 years.

Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, told reporters that from the perspective of the completion of the new employment target this year, under the current economic structure, China's economic growth can reach its established tasks as long as more than 6%, and the employment pressure is significantly lower than before. "According to our prediction, next year's economic growth will be about 7.2%. I don't know whether the country will reduce its economic growth target next year. There is room for employment. "

Economists believe that the downward adjustment of growth targets, in a sense, is also reserved for faster reform. The 2015 meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee set the deadline for "deepening the reform in a comprehensive way". In Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, it means that the reform will enter the critical stage of landing in 2015 from the preparation period in 2014. He believes that in 2015, the central government will unswervingly push ahead with the reform of the economic system, and introduce reform measures that have both the characteristics of the year and the long-term institutional arrangements, improve the quality of the reform of the economic system and grasp the landing of economic restructuring measures. A series of reform plans for SOEs, finance, taxation, finance, social security, land and judicature, which were considered at the 1 to 7 meetings of the deep reorganization in 2014, will be implemented step by step.

According to the people's development and Reform Commission, investment and financing system reform will still be the focus of work in the next few years. The reform of investment and financing system that will be pushed forward in seven major areas will continue next year. Some sources have revealed that the reform of investment and financing system is expected to further expand.

Zhou Jingtong, senior researcher of Bank of China International Financial Research Institute, speculated that in 2015, we will further deepen the reform of the system as the main line, further abolish and reduce the examination and approval matters, expand the right of decision-making of enterprises, especially the central enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and highlight the investment status of enterprises.

The major economic strategy of "one belt and one road" is also regarded as the focus of next year's economic work deployment. Guan Qingyou believes that "one belt and one road" is China's most important national strategy in the medium and long term. Because it means that the great power diplomacy of our country will form an all directional opening pattern, while regional coordination and cooperation. Industrial transformation and upgrading It will speed up.

Zhang Yansheng, Secretary General of the academic committee of the NDRC, believes that in the construction of "one belt and one road", China will focus on resource-based industries and labor-intensive industries, and develop three industries outside the country, resources outside and outside the market in the countries along the line, and then export products, equipment and labor services.

　　 Rotation mode Adjusting the structure, highlighting innovation drive, strengthening risk prevention and control, and strengthening people's livelihood protection are also the goals pursued by macroeconomic regulation and control in 2015. Among them, Structural adjustment Will be placed in a more important position, and this depends to a large extent on the implementation of fiscal policy. Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of quantitative economics and technology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that at present, the new economic growth point in China is still hard to form strong support, and it is very necessary to continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy. Under the new normal growth of fiscal revenue growth, fiscal policy should focus on adjusting the expenditure structure and improving the efficiency of the use of financial funds.

Innovation drive plays a significant role in promoting long-term economic growth and requires sustained policy support. Fang Gang, director of the National Economic Research Institute of the China economic reform research foundation, said that after more than 30 years of reform and opening up, Chinese enterprises began to have the ability of innovation gradually. During the period of 13th Five-Year, the contribution of innovation to China's economic growth should be greater than in the past. To achieve this potential, policy support is needed.