Xuan Yu: An Accurate Understanding Of The Logic Of The New Normal Economic Situation In 2015

The central economic work conference held recently expounded the new normal situation of China's economic development. This is the most comprehensive and systematic exposition of the "new normal" of Henan since the general secretary Xi Jinping's first "new normal" in Henan in May this year. policy And the most important background of macroeconomic regulation and control is also the fundamental basis for us to grasp the trend of the economic situation and macro policy next year.

　　 New normal logic

After more than 30 years of rapid growth, which relies heavily on environment and resource consumption, profound changes have taken place in the characteristics of China's economy. The meeting will grasp the characteristics of the "new normal" from nine major trends. The meeting pointed out that the current stage of imitation consumption in China is basically over, the investment in traditional industries is relatively saturated, and the total global demand is sluggish. low cost The comparative advantage is weakened; the traditional industry is seriously overcapacity; the driving force of the scale of production factors is decreasing; the carrying capacity of the resources and environment has reached or near the upper limit; all kinds of hidden risks have been downplayed with the economic growth rate; the marginal effect of the comprehensive stimulus policy has obviously decreased. The pressure of these new trends, coupled with the strength of the deep and continuous adjustment of the world economy after the international financial crisis, has led to China's economic development entering the "new normal".

In 2013, China's economy formally bid farewell to the "8 era". It is a landmark year for China's economy to enter the new normal. No doubt, under the new normal. China's economy We need to pay more attention to and follow the economic laws, natural laws and social laws, and gradually achieve scientific development, sustainable development and inclusive development. We need to transform the extensive mode of economic growth from scale and speed to extensive growth of quality and efficiency. The economic structure will shift from the incremental expansion to the adjustment of stock and the co-existence of the best and the increment. The driving force of economic development will shift from the traditional growth point to the new growth point. This is a valuable experience to sum up China's economic and social development over the past 30 years, and it is also an inevitable choice to take the initiative to adapt to the new normal and effectively resolve the current "three phase superposition" dilemma.

The Central Committee's strategic judgement on the new normal economic situation shows that the central government maintains a clear-cut attitude of adjusting the flexibility of the region, paying close attention to tackling the challenges of reform, emphasizing innovation driven, and firmly transforming the mode of economic development. In the face of the new normal situation of economic development, only by "adapting" to the concept and "being in place" can we achieve the "right way" and "effective" work in order to truly understand the new normal, adapt to the new normal and lead the new normal, and firmly grasp the "great logic of China's economic development in the current and future period".

Deepening understanding, scientific understanding and accurately grasping the new normal situation of China's economic development is of great significance for promoting social reasonable expectations, enhancing the resultant force of thought and action, and enhancing the consciousness and initiative of speeding up the transfer of modes and structures. (for this reason, the meeting stressed the need to "pay more attention to guiding social expectations" and "strengthen public opinion guidance").

　　 Next year's economic situation and tasks

About economic growth. The conference has comprehensively deployed the key work of economic and social development next year, and "strive to maintain steady economic growth" has become the primary task of next year's economic work. China's economic development needs to maintain a certain speed. This is the basis for solving many problems in development, and is also an important condition for strengthening and improving people's livelihood security. The conference stressed the importance of "unswervingly adhere to the economic development as the center and wholeheartedly strive for development", and strive to achieve "speed adjustment without reducing potential and increasing quantity and quality". This shows that we must maintain a certain growth rate of the economy, and we must not be able to see the "downtrend" of the downward trend of the economy and keep the economy running at a reasonable level. This is the bottom line of the policy. On the other hand, we must accurately grasp the objective requirements of the new normal, "shift the way to adjust the structure to a more important position", and "rely on promoting reform and adjusting the structure, unswervingly promote economic development quality, efficiency and upgrading", and maintain the flexibility of regional regulation.

In terms of growth momentum, it is necessary to promote the more balanced growth of the "three carriages", so that consumption can continue to play a fundamental role in promoting economic development. Investment will continue to play a key role in economic development, and exports will continue to play a supporting role in economic development; it is necessary to put the focus of economic work on the way of structural adjustment and promote the synchronous development of the new four modernizations, and gradually enhance the supporting role of strategic emerging industries and service industries, and strive to promote the traditional industries to the middle and high end. At the same time, a special train is required to actively cultivate new growth points from three aspects: "market to live", "innovation to be real" and "policy to be broad". This shows that as long as the economy is in a reasonable range, it will still rely mainly on promoting reform and promoting innovation and structural adjustment, insisting on improving the quality and efficiency of economic development, and actively adapting to and leading the new normal. This logic is the same as this year.

The "elasticity" at the bottom of the economic rational interval depends mainly on the risk bearing capacity caused by the employment and economic downturn. With continuous reform and innovation, the affordability of economic risk is further enhanced. We judge that in 2015, the quality of economic growth and growth will be further switched, and the growth target of GDP will be reduced to 7%~7.2%, and other major indicators will be adjusted accordingly.

About economic resilience. The meeting called for "careful planning to make good use of our economy's great resilience, potential and room for maneuver". We believe that the great resilience of China's economy is reflected in investment demand. Although the investment in traditional industries has been relatively saturated, investment opportunities in infrastructure interconnection and new technologies, new products, new formats and new business models have springing up. Investment plays a key role in the development of short term economy. On the other hand, economic resilience is manifested in reform and innovation. Because of the huge dividends of reform and the vast growth space of innovation, it has become the most important starting point for the major economic and social goals and tasks to be achieved in 2014, and will also become a new engine for China's economic growth next year and for a long time to come.

On the one hand, the short-term role of steady investment growth is still important. (many investments are part of economic transformation and upgrading, which are different from traditional scale stimulation). On the other hand, reform and innovation still need to rely on "decentralization and decentralization" and "micro liberalization". The "double track system" of steady growth that we proposed before is still an important analytical framework.

China's unbalanced regional development also has enormous potential for development and room for maneuver, which is closely related to investment space. Optimizing the spatial pattern of economic development and promoting the strategy of regional coordinated development will bring great potential for economic growth. With the reform and innovation constantly breaking the regional blockade and interests barriers, the efficiency of resource allocation will be improved in an all-round way.

We believe that the short-term growth of China's economy will not be a risk event.

About reform and innovation. The year 2015 is the key year for comprehensively deepening the reform. The reform will be developed in depth, and the new engine of innovation and development will be promoted through the reform of the ignitor, so as to fully release the dividend of the institutional mechanism. The meeting called for "dares to bite the bone, dare to risk the beach, dare to go deep water area, and speed up the reform of the economic system". "We need to push forward the reform around the outstanding problems faced by the development, and introduce reform measures that have both the characteristics of the year and the long-term institutional arrangements. We should continue to do a good job in formulating the various reform plans". At the same time, we must pay close attention to the implementation of the reform measures and implement the requirements of "strengthening responsibilities and increasing coordination".

The meeting proposed in 2015 to speed up the reform of "administrative examination and approval, investment, price, monopoly industries, franchising, government procurement services, capital market, access to private banks, foreign investment and other fields".

Innovation is an important magic weapon to adapt and lead the new normal. The key to China's economic development towards innovation driven and high-end is to develop the wisdom and enthusiasm of the people. The meeting stressed the need to "pay more attention to strengthening the protection of property rights and intellectual property rights, pay more attention to giving full play to entrepreneurship," and "pay more attention to scientific and technological progress and comprehensive innovation". As premier Li Keqiang said, we should create a warm "multiplication" through the "subtraction" of the government's decentralization and profit transfer. The central government therefore proposes to "respect and give play to the spirit of local, grassroots and mass initiative, and find the best plan from practice". We must create a policy environment and institutional environment conducive to public entrepreneurship and market main body innovation, and emphasize the need to "promote the reform of important areas with the government's own revolution, and create new momentum of development through mass entrepreneurship and innovation."