Comprehensive Reduction Is Not The Best Choice.

In 2015, economic work persisted in the general keynote of steady progress, adhered to the general idea of macroeconomic policy being stable, microcosmic policies to live, and social policies should be underpinning, and continued to implement the combination of "active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy".

As mentioned above, in the face of the new normal of economic development, reform and innovation are needed.

Since the beginning of this year, the focus of potential economic growth has obviously shifted down, and the downward pressure on the economy has always been greater.

However, the government is committed to maintaining macro control, innovating macroeconomic regulation and control, and insisting on reasonable interval management. It emphasizes the use of "decentralization and decentralization" "first hand chess" and system building "serial guns" to stimulate social innovation and create entrepreneurial enthusiasm and economic vitality.

A series of measures of "decentralization" and "micro liberalization" have given the small and medium-sized enterprises "Relaxation" and "thirst for thirst". This is the fundamental guarantee for the sustained economic development of the economy this year. It also demonstrates the firm determination of the government to promote reform and innovation, pformation and upgrading, and this produces a benign social expectation.

The successful experience of macroeconomic regulation and control this year is an important background for us to accurately grasp the trend of next year's policy. Directional regulation and structural regulation are still prominent policy characteristics.

In terms of fiscal policy, the meeting stressed the need for a positive fiscal policy. It is expected to further strengthen the counter cyclical regulation of fiscal policy next year, strengthen the guiding role of fiscal policy in pformation and upgrading, and increase the scale of tax reduction and increase.

Specific aspects will increase support for technological innovation and strategic emerging industries; in order to hedge the downward pressure on real estate investment, investment in infrastructure interconnection will also be further enhanced; the deficit rate will increase correspondingly.

On the other hand, the conference also stressed that "monetary policy should pay more attention to tightness and moderation" in order to maintain "prudent". This means that monetary policy will be more "active" next year, and liquidity management will be more active.

Facing the characteristics of pformation and upgrading under the new normal, monetary policy will continue to adhere to the basic orientation of "total stability and structural optimization".

We judge that next year will continue to be created this year.

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PSL, MLF and other innovative tools "directional" pre fine-tuning, targeted to reduce the financing costs of the real economy.

But similar measures to cut interest rates this year will be used prudently if necessary, and the pmission of policy intentions as accurately as possible will fully reflect the balanced art of monetary policy "knife point"; from now on, considering the two levels of Finance and entity, comprehensive reduction is not the best choice.

At present, monetary policy in 2015 shows a "neutral tight" pattern.