Behind The Sales Of Wanda Wang Jianlin: O2O Spanformation Is The Future.

The day before yesterday, "the Thirteenth Annual Meeting of leaders of Chinese enterprises" in 2014, he said that real estate in 2008 was a "normal state". At present, it is a "normal state" and no longer has any illusions of profiteering. For Wanda and other companies, only 10 years of spanformation.

In my view, Wang Jianlin is playing the crisis at the moment, more like passing confidence. At the end of his speech, "we will publish our latest report on spanformation next year. How can we change the industry?" that's not what I want to say today.

He talked a lot about spanformation over the past year. The future he describes to Wanda Group is mainly spanformed through the Internet and spanformed into a O2O enterprise that converts culture, entertainment, shopping, tourism, hotels and other services to rekindle growth momentum. It mainly borrows Wanda e-commerce to build online and offline business models.

Wang Jianlin's confidence is based on his expectations for the development of Wanda's electricity supplier. In his mouth, Wanda's electricity supplier is also the "strategic pillar industry" of the group in the future. A few days ago, Wanda Commercial Real Estate prospectus showed that 35% of Wanda's electricity supplier had been put into a listed company. I believe that this part will be a tool to enhance the valuation of Wanda Commercial real estate.

About Wanda Commercial real estate valuation, institutional data vary widely: Townsend Reuters gives 161 billion 200 million to 191 billion 400 million yuan; Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, HSBC, Citigroup and other assets are expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, long-term equity valuation limit of more than 400 billion Hong Kong dollars.

In my opinion, the data discrepancy reflects that there is a misunderstanding about Wanda Commercial real estate business mode.

For example, Townsend Reuters is a technicist. It ignores Wanda Commercial Real Estate's rich format and Wanda's electricity supplier. Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Citigroup have high data, but the value of Wanda's electricity providers is also underestimated by the average rental price. Only Credit Suisse stressed the Wanda Commercial real estate online and offline layout factors, that Wanda electricity supplier and Wanda Plaza will form a synergy effect.

Wanda Group named this business as "Wanda Commercial real estate", but it is difficult to truly reflect its commercial value by valuing it purely from the perspective of real estate. This is not only because it owns 35% of Wanda electricity supplier business. But because this is the key to Wang Jianlin's spanformation in 2015, the latter's valuation is enough to affect Wanda Commercial Real Estate's future trend and development potential.

The valuation of Wanda electricity supplier is hard to give a clear data now. Wanda Commercial real estate part applies general valuation methods, such as income method. But the part of the electricity supplier is not applicable. As an Internet platform, these enterprises are mainly reflected in the volume of traffic, active members and customers, rather than direct profits.

I think it should be examined in the Internet industry. At least, we should not ignore the following factors:

1, the scope and development prospects of Wanda's electricity supplier's subdivision area.

2, Wanda electricity supplier current traffic, single user value;

3, Wanda electronic business platform construction speed and position;

4, the profit forecast and profitability of Wanda e-commerce mode.

5, the founder's change motivation and team capability.

The O2O market of Wanda's electricity supplier is unquestionable. EnfoDesk monitoring data of Analysys think tank, in 2013, China's O2O market reached 462 billion 300 million, an increase of 69% over the same period last year. Real estate O2O accounts for a relatively high proportion. In the next few years, the entire O2O market is expected to expand to trillions.

Wanda electricity providers do not worry about traffic. This is also its biggest advantage. Ma Huateng and Robin Li invest in it. Wanda electricity supplier initial traffic from Wanda Plaza, long term includes Wanda Group's all culture, tourism, hotels and other traffic. Wanda electricity supplier is the entry and realization platform of Wanda Group's huge line traffic.

Some data are hard to count. Wanda Commercial Real Estate prospectus shows that in 2013, the traffic volume of Wanda Plaza exceeded 1 billion 200 million passengers. It is said that membership reaches about 30000000, and is expected to increase to 100 million in the coming year. It is assumed that Wanda will successfully import Wanda Plaza traffic with active users in the coming year, and each member will spend 500 yuan a year, and the platform GMV will reach 50 billion yuan. If Wanda Hotel, tourism, cinema and other traffic are imported in the next two years, Wanda electronic business platform GMV is expected to double to 100 billion yuan.

This rough data is enough to surpass Ali. JD.COM All kinds of e-commerce platforms outside China. It was equivalent to the size of the Jingdong in 2013, when it valued at about $30 billion. If Wanda e-commerce reaches the Jingdong valuation in 2013, even if Wanda Commercial real estate part does not increase in value in the next two years, according to the lowest interval calculated by Thomson Reuters, the entire online and offline valuation will also be between 3500-3800 billion yuan. If Goldman Sachs calculates, the forward equity valuation is expected to exceed 400 billion yuan.

Of course, the 3, 4 and 5 factors are equally important for achieving this valuation. An unfavorable factor is that the prospectus shows that up to now, Wanda electricity supplier has not yet been established.

But Wang Jianlin seems to be in a good mood. Some time ago, when he opened the Kunming Wanda Plaza, he told the media that there was no resistance to the establishment of the company. Only the early stage must focus on the backstage, especially the construction of the big data center, which will be put into use next year in 7 and August. By the third quarter of next year, Wanda electricity supplier will be fully launched. To promote docking between Wanda Plaza and hotel industry and platform, Wanda is developing dozens of software at the same time. In addition, he also revealed that Wanda Group is acquiring a payment company.

If it comes true, Wanda will not only gain spanaction support and many merchant resources, but also help build a complete closed loop O2O mode.

You from Background construction It can be felt that compared to a year ago, Wang Jianlin's attitude towards developing the electricity supplier has become relatively rational, no longer aggressive, but starts from the base end. My judgement is that compared with other start-ups, the Wanda electricity supplier was born with commercial resources and free traffic support, focusing on the background construction at the moment. My hunch is that once the big data center is online, Wanda will sprint the mobile terminal.

I have no doubt that Wang Jianlin, 60, has the spirit of innovation and spanformation. In fact, since he began to bet against Ma Yun, I feel that he has realized the strategic direction of Wanda Group. Over the past year or so, he has spanmitted confidence to the outside world almost every once in a while.

Wanda Group O2O The strategy is in line with the upgrading direction of China's real estate industry, and it is also the direction for China's Internet industry and the real economy to continue to integrate. When you think about it, why do Tencent and Baidu obviously have their own independent O2O business and have huge amounts of money to participate in Wanda's electricity supplier, so they can understand Wanda's components in the whole O2O of real estate.

BAT moves from one end of the Internet to the other end of the entity, creating the O2O ecosystem in an all-round way. Wanda integrates the Internet end from one end of the entity, and the two sides are not opposed to each other. This is a trend that cannot be stopped.

In Wanda Commercial real estate will soon be IPO, Wang Jianlin not only shouting, but rendering crisis, just hinted the future of Wanda electricity supplier.