Difficult To Turn Over Cotton In March Or Up Next Year

Recently, cotton markets at home and abroad are at a low level.

In December 18th, Zheng cotton was oscillating around 13000 yuan / ton. 1501 contracts fell slightly, falling 35 yuan / ton on a single day, and trading volume shrank slightly.

ICE cotton was repeatedly oscillating around 60 cents / pound, and the main contract closed 60.82 cents / pound, up 17 points.

China's main port price remained stable, Qingdao port SM class cotton price 16500 yuan / ton, Australia cotton 17500 yuan / ton, India cotton 14500 yuan / ton, the paction is not smooth, if the big single deal, the price is generally negotiable.

Domestic cotton fell and stabilized. On the 19 day, Xinjiang cotton platform pick-up price was generally 14000-14200 yuan / ton (3128 level), and the inland warehouse delivery price was 14500-14600 yuan / ton (Shandong Qingdao warehouse), the price has been stable for a week.

To sum up,

The pessimism has weakened, and a few market participants believe that the "bottom" has been in the near future or will rebound sharply before and after the Spring Festival.

So, will the Spring Festival in cotton city really come?

At present, the market's many factors include two points: first, the NDRC has been making a statement in the near future, and will not easily throw up and suppress the cotton market.

Therefore, there is reason to think that the first time this year will be in March 2015, or even later.

In addition, there is a view that the state dumping price will not be too low. If it is above 14000 yuan / ton, it will support the market.

Second, China's cotton production has been greatly reduced this year, and the data of the National Bureau of statistics is 6 million 161 thousand tons.

But market participants expect this figure to be lower than real production.

However, the impact of bad factors is obviously greater: first, the global

High.

The US Department of agriculture's global cotton supply and demand forecast report in December showed that the total output of cotton in the 2014/15 year was 25 million 905 thousand tons, 137 thousand tons less than the previous year, and the consumption volume was 24 million 516 thousand tons, a decrease of 272 thousand tons compared with the previous year, and the overall oversupply situation has not yet been changed.

Global cotton inventories have been continuously improving for 5 consecutive years, reaching a record high of 23 million 532 thousand tons in 2014/15, followed by China's cotton quota policy.

In 2015, in addition to the 1% tariff quota of 894 thousand tons, China no longer issued other quotas.

This is a support for domestic cotton, but for foreign cotton, it is nothing more than a big mountain.

According to port traders, by the end of 12, domestic textile enterprises will declare their quotas in 2015. It is estimated that from January 2015 to early February, quotas can be distributed to enterprises.

From December 26, 2014 to early February 2015, the customs clearance of outer cotton will be suppressed. Finally, China's cotton and cotton yarns will run in low positions.

China's temporary acquisition and withdrawal policy is replaced by direct subsidy policy.

Prices are down sharply, and are expected to fluctuate in the range of 13000-14000 yuan / ton in the near future.

Under the background of internal and external cotton connection, it is difficult to turn over cotton.

However, the author believes that the ICE cotton will continue to fluctuate at 60 cents / pound this year. As the price is below the cost, it is expected that the global cotton area will be greatly reduced in 2015. Therefore, domestic cotton will rebound in 3 and April in 2015, and cotton will not be an exception.