A Breakthrough In The Total Amount Of Cotton Warehousing In Xinjiang

This year, Xinjiang took the lead in carrying out the pilot project of cotton target price in the whole country.

Xinjiang

The planting area is mainly distributed in more than 60 counties (cities) and 119 farms in the north and South Xinjiang.

About 35% of farmers' per capita net income comes from cotton planting income, and the main production area accounts for more than 50%-70%.

The effectiveness of the pilot reform will directly affect the increase of farmers' income and social stability in Xinjiang.

In addition to the target price of cotton

In addition, the NDRC also announced that the state will not easily sell the national cotton reserves, but will not issue additional quotas for cotton next year unless it has issued 894 thousand tonnes of tariff quotas.

The quota has been reduced, and many enterprises have made plans to purchase Xinjiang cotton.

Director Liu kman said that this year's implementation of cotton target price direct subsidy policy, the most obvious effect is that the formation mechanism of cotton prices by the market has basically taken shape.

Whether cotton farmers sell seed cotton, processing plants buy seed cotton, or textile enterprises purchase lint, the most or only factor they consider is market demand.

This is the purpose of the implementation of the new cotton policy and the result that the policy should achieve.

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Since the second half of this year, the international crude oil prices have been in a dilemma. The rapid recovery of supply and the slowing down of demand have led to the biggest unilateral drop in international oil prices since the financial crisis.

Although New York's oil price has been short supported by the US $55 / barrel level recently, under the situation of prominent supply and demand contradiction, the probability that oil prices will continue to fall in the late period will be greater, thus putting pressure on the whole chemical product market.

As raw material for PTA production, PX has also undergone unilateral downward trend.

Especially in the second half of the year, the concentrated supply of production has made the supply of PX in Asia rapidly increase, but the PTA enterprise operating rate remained low, and the pressure of PX oversupply began to appear.

However, although prices continue to decline, the PX business is obviously better than 3 - May.

When the processing cost of US $350 / ton was calculated, the loss of PX produced by naphtha was once more than US $100 / ton. At present, enterprises are basically hovering around the profit and loss balance line.

It can be seen that PX production enterprises are not strong enough to reduce production, and the relative surplus of supply will continue.

At the end of November, the mainstream PTA manufacturers in China unanimously announced that since the beginning of December, plant maintenance or discontinued production began. The PTA industry started to fall from 75% above the end of November to about 52% in mid December.

However, during this period, the crude oil in the outer market fell rapidly, eliminating the substantial positive effect of overhaul and shut-down. Domestic PTA spot price did not rise or fall, and it fell through the 5000 yuan / ton integer mark in December 11th.

In mid December, with the continuous restarting of maintenance devices, the operation rate of domestic PTA industry rose rapidly to about 75% of that before maintenance, and supply normalization.

At the same time, domestic demand for polyester began to turn weak, especially the operation rate of polyester filament was obviously down, and signs of insufficient demand appeared gradually.

Near the Spring Festival, the terminal textile enterprises will be closed down one after another.

Therefore, late polyester demand further fall is a big probability event.

Under the pressure of excess supply, the price of PTA will continue to bear down.

Based on the above analysis, with the downward trend of cost and oversupply, the price of PTA will continue downward.

However, at present, the price of PTA has been relatively low, and the technical backlash of crude oil may not exclude the possibility that PTA will take advantage of the rebound in crude oil.

Therefore, in terms of specific operation, it is suggested that investors take the strategy of short selling and short selling. The interval of empty entry is 4850 - 4950 yuan / ton, and the target price is 4500 yuan / ton.

Once the late price is up to 5050 - 5150 yuan / ton interval, the air order will need to stop.