The Second Big Bull Market In The History Of A Shares

In the next 5-10 years, A shares will not be neither a bull market nor a bull market, nor a bull market, but a big bull market.

Looking back at the historical development of emerging market stock markets, there are generally two big bull markets, and China is no exception.

The first big bull market is the popularity of stock among its people. From the top 1% in 2006, the Chinese hold Chinese stocks, and now 10% of Chinese hold Chinese stocks. The second is the popularity of domestic stock among the people of the world. That is to say, 1% of the world's people hold A shares. In the future, 10% of the world's people will own A shares.

At present, the A share has not been widely allocated by the people of the world. After the A share is included in the MSCI index, the global capital will start to configure A shares. It is estimated that the passive funds will be pferred to the warehouse and the Shanghai Composite Index will reach more than 6000 points.

At that time, A shares will become the common quality assets of the people of the whole world, and China and the United States will really achieve integration, just like the US and Europe.

Once the asset allocation of large categories is missed, it is impossible to make up for it.

As a home participant in China's capital market, there are two big bull market opportunities that can not be missed in the wealth life. It is the first time in 2006 and 2007, the second time now.

The bear market in China's A share market has officially ended in December 2012, the landmark date is December 4, 2012.

After the eighteen chairman Xi took office, he made a quick tour of the south. After the South inspection, the bear market of China's stock market has ended. The bear market means that the process of collectives and collectives of various types of stocks has ended. The structural bull market and the local bull market have already started. They can also be called the pitional economy and the bull market of the new economy.

During the period, the Shanghai Composite Index has been consolidating around 2000 points, sorted out and sorted out, and now it is going to rise by two hundred or three hundred points. It will also drop. Later, in the "money shortage", there were 1849 such low points. But we do not think this will change the fact that the local bull market has begun.

The brewing and launching of the "one way and one side" makes the market's expectation of China's economy change from a hard landing to a soft landing expectation, which is the theoretical basis for the blue chip market to repair the market.

After that, the market rose by one thousand points in just a few months, and the blue chips entered a fast rising stage. The landmark event was the rise of financial real estate stocks represented by the securities dealers.

First of all, let's talk.

In five to ten years, the leading plate will be "one center and two basic points".

A center refers to the center of national security and military industry under the current domestic and international situation.

With the US's return to the Asia Pacific region, the deterioration of relations between NATO and Russia, the ferment of the Middle East geopolitical situation brought about by the strategic withdrawal of the US oil shale gas revolution, the international situation has entered a very significant strategic period of concussion, which is rare after the end of the cold war.

Under such circumstances, China's two reforms, two opening-up, two development, two pioneering work and leaping over the middle-income trap must focus on national security.

Two basic points: first, institutional dividends, namely, the reform of state-owned enterprises, the reform of mixed ownership, the decentralization of profits, the reform of free trade zones, etc. the other basic point is the pfer of rural land, agriculture and rural areas.

So we say that we can see that the long lead plate of five to ten years is what we have just said, "taking the national security and the military industry as the center, taking the system dividend and the big agriculture and the countryside as the two basic points".

2015 and 2016

It will be a center and two basic points in the middle line: a center is centered on blue chips, two basic points, one is financial real estate, the other is traditional periodic blue chips, or old economic cyclical stocks.

The market will enter the bull market consolidation and differentiation stage from next year to about 2015 years, that is, between 2016 and 2016.

At this stage, we will talk about two figures. You can remember: the "double 30%" and the first 30%, that is, the next two years, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (3476.152, 18.60, 0.54%) index, that is, the blue chips index will rise about 30%. At the same time, the small market share, subject stock and stock index, represented by the gem index, will probably fall 30% in the next two years, a positive 30%, a negative 30%.

Due to the impact of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the registration system, the next two years may be the more than 20 year history since 1991. The most obvious and significant two years for Chinese stock market blue chips to win the small market value theme stocks.

From the perspective of stocks, hundreds of stocks may fall by 50% or more.

Take one thousand equity and mixed equity fund as an example, there may be more than half of the fund losses in the next two years, because the allocation of blue chips is still low on the whole, and the market capitalization of small and medium capitalization is still high, and the impact of anti registration system and International Valuation system is weak.

Over the next two years, more than 20% of the fund will be everywhere, but 20% of the funds will be everywhere.

Two years later,

The leading force in the A share market will fall to below 49% for the first time since China's stock market in 1991. We will remember in the future that retail and retail thinking will not be eliminated in the bull market or eliminated in the bear market, and will be eliminated in the tide of the introduction of foreign investment and registration system.

Before and after 2017, after China's real economy hit the bottom on the basis of high quality, after the end of the concentrated impact of registration system and internationalization, the A share market will be expected to enter the high quality long bull and ox slow phase, set a new high in the 100th anniversary years before and after the founding of the Communist Party of China in 2021, and at the same time, GDP will surpass the US stock market capitalization and the US GDP, becoming the world's largest capital market.