Where To Go In The Post Harvest Era?

In 2014, China abolished the practice for 3 years.

The temporary purchase and storage policy is replaced by the target price new deal (currently only being tested in Xinjiang cotton area). Cotton prices are gradually returning to the market, and the cotton industry environment has undergone major changes and entered the "post purchase and storage era".

Due to the suspension of the policy of purchasing and storage, the new target price policy has not been implemented yet.

It is a difficult problem for cotton growers and processing enterprises to follow.

Cotton prices fell to the lowest level in recent years

From the perspective of spatial layout, China's cotton is divided into Xinjiang cotton region and

Among them, the Huang Huai cotton catchment and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the main cotton growing areas in the mainland.

The Dongting Lake plain, known as "the land of fish and rice", runs across two provinces in Hunan and Hubei. It is an important commodity cotton base in China.

When the cotton picking season is in place, the correspondents do not see much joy.

Wang Huanjin, a big cotton farmer in Lidong village, Lixian, Hunan, looked sad. He pointed to the sparse cotton fields and told reporters: "in the normal year, the yield of cotton per mu is about 600 Jin. At the most, it is 320 Jin this year."

Not only Wang Huanjin.

Hunan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shandong, Jiangxi and other major cotton producing areas all reflected that cotton yield per unit area decreased significantly in 2014.

Hunan cotton planting second counties Anxiang county supply and marketing cooperatives and other departments have done a survey, local cotton production per unit in 2014 than the normal year dropped by about 40%.

The price of cotton has fallen to the lowest level in recent years, while the yield of cotton has dropped to its lowest point in recent years.

The reporter learned in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River that the purchase price of the cotton peddler is 2.6 yuan to 2.9 yuan per jin of seed cotton, which is the lowest price in the last 6 years.

In the last 3 years, the average price is 3.8 yuan per catty.

Li Wenlin, a cotton grower in the Dongting Lake plain, calculated that the cost of seed, fertilizer, pesticide, basement membrane, land pfer, labor and cotton picking should be 685 yuan per mu.

They invest at least 3 jobs per acre, according to 100 yuan per worker day, 300 yuan.

"Calculated, the cost of one mu of cotton is 985 yuan, at the current price, the income per mu is only 945 yuan, which means that I have worked for a year, and I have to pay for it!" Li Wenlin said.

Prices have dropped to the lowest level in nearly 6 years, and cotton farmers are generally reluctant to sell.

In the Hunan Huxiang cotton industry small ferry branch, at this time of the year, reporters could always see the long queue from the company gate to the warehouse, and the large square in the front half of the warehouse, which was crowded with traffic.

The reporter went to see that the huge stadium was deserted.

Pang Haiqing, a business manager of the small ferry division, told reporters: "people are too willing to sell cotton because they are too low in price."

Since their scale last year, their company has collected 300 thousand tons, which has acquired at least 6 million tons in the same period last year.

Labor pains in the new deal

Reporter survey found that in previous years, once the cotton farmers reluctant to sell, processing enterprises will not sit down, will take the initiative to purchase.

Strangely enough, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell, and businesses are reluctant to accept the stalemate.

Wang Jialong, director of the Yinfeng cotton industry in Songzi, Hubei, said that 4 large scale cotton processing enterprises in Songzi city had only bought scales before 6, but they did not receive much.

"All of them are symbolically collected, and the purchase volume is 5% of the same period in the same period."

Why do these processing enterprises prefer warehouse vacancy, machine idle, workers rest, and do not want to buy cotton processing?

Wang Jialong calculated a detailed account: the price of cotton traders to processing factories ranged from 3.05 yuan to 3.15 yuan, and the linen rate was 38% (that is, 100 kg of seed cotton was rolled out 38 kg of lint), and the cotton seed price was converted to a standard conversion of 1 yuan per catty. The acquisition cost of one ton of lint was about 13 thousand and 300 yuan, processing expenses, marketing office expenses and loan financial expenses were about 1200 yuan, and the cost of one ton of lint was about 14 thousand and 500 yuan.

"According to the current market price, a ton of lint is sold for 14 thousand yuan, which means that every time I make a ton of lint, I lose 500 yuan. Who will do this business?"

Wang Jialong said.

The stalemate of "farmers unwilling to sell and enterprises unwilling to accept" is due to the abolition of the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy. The price of new cotton is entirely determined by the market, and the domestic cotton price should be basically in line with the international cotton price.

At present, the domestic cotton price has dropped compared with the previous years, but it is still at a high price compared with the international cotton price.

China's cotton spinning enterprises belong to export-oriented manufacturing enterprises. If they want to "go out" and participate in international market competition, they will not dare to buy large quantities of domestic cotton according to the current price.

In the upper reaches of cotton spinning enterprises, the processing enterprises are naturally afraid to let go.

Industry analysts believe that the acquisition and processing enterprises cautious wait and see, cotton farmers wait and see.

Compressed inventory, until the end of the year, farmers have to sell cotton in large quantities, is likely to appear "cotton market chaos", cotton farmers' income is even more questionable.

At present, this may be a "labor pains" which is unavoidable in policy adjustment.

Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, believes that in the past 3 years, cotton has been temporarily stored and stored in China, which has stabilized the cotton market. However, it has also been embarrassed by the continuous decline of cotton quality and the loss of cotton spinning industry.

In order to get rid of this embarrassment, China has implemented the "New Deal" of cotton, hoping to promote the pformation and upgrading of the long and sluggish cotton industry, improve the quality of domestic cotton, reduce the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, and increase the international competitiveness of domestic textile enterprises.

Transformation has become an inevitable policy and needs to keep pace with it.

The accelerated pformation of cotton industry in China has become inevitable. However, compared with the Xinjiang cotton region that has implemented the cotton target price reform pilot, the 9 cotton provinces in the mainland have not yet implemented this reform. At present, only 2000 yuan per ton of lint is allowed to be subsidized, and the pformation path will undoubtedly be even more difficult.

According to the China Cotton Association survey, it is estimated that cotton planting area will be 63 million 400 thousand mu in 2014, down 9.4% from the previous year.

Among them, the cotton area in the Yangtze River Valley and the Huang Huai river basin is affected by the increase in production costs, the decrease in the comparative benefit of cotton planting and the cancellation of temporary storage and storage policy.

Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of rural development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that Xinjiang cotton area is easier to realize mechanization and relatively low cost. The cotton growing areas in the mainland are mostly small-scale farmers planting mode, with high cost and low efficiency. With the gradual return of cotton prices to the market, the competitiveness of the cotton growing areas in the mainland has declined, and some small farmers growers and processing enterprises with high cost and low efficiency will be out of the field of production and processing.

Reporter survey found that the current low cotton prices hurt the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, many cotton farmers said that if the late cotton prices did not pick up, in 2015 will consider reducing cotton planting area, or even no longer planting cotton.

According to the comprehensive data analysis, according to the current market trend, cotton prices are hard to pick up, and the willingness of farmers in the mainland to grow in 2015 will undoubtedly drop more obviously, so the domestic cotton planting pattern will face a big adjustment.

However, the adjustment is not easy, and some cotton farmers who try to pform are losing more.

In Huarong County, the first cotton production county in Hunan, many cotton growers changed pumpkins this year. As a result, during the harvest season, pumpkins were seriously unsalable, and a large number of pumpkins were rotten to the ground.

In Gongan County, Yang Jun, a cotton grower, reflects the lack of local water resources, the poor water conservancy facilities, and the difficulty of irrigation. Before planting cotton, it did not need to be watered regularly, and it could cope with it.

He Yuegang, vice president of Hunan Cotton Association, said that in 2014, only some cotton growers had changed to other crops. There were so many problems. In view of the current difficulty in selling cotton, there will be more cotton growers in other crops in 2015.

A number of grassroots cadres told reporters that the policy of purchasing and storing was cancelled, and cotton farmers encountered many difficulties, but they did not know how to help them.

"Recently came to the countryside, most afraid of cotton farmers asked: what is good next year?"

Dang Guoying, a researcher at the Institute of rural development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that we should integrate various departments' strength to provide supporting services for the pformation of cotton farmers, such as strengthening water conservancy facilities and constructing tractor cultivation roads, so as to provide basic conditions for cotton farmers to replant other crops.

It is also necessary to provide market guidance and technical training for cotton growers, so as to prevent cotton farmers from changing their crops to a certain type of crops, resulting in oversupply, and finally, they will hurt farmers.