The RMB Devaluation Is Limited, Two-Way Volatility Is More Significant.

From the recent rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate, we can see that the two-way fluctuation of RMB is obvious.

The RMB exchange rate weakened in January 5th and 6, but the 7 day showed a slight increase.

Ren Zeping, chief macroeconomic researcher of Guotai Junan, said in a research report that the depreciation of the RMB will effectively enhance exports, which is the bottom line for China's economy. It is expected that the authorities will follow the trend and expect the RMB to depreciate to around 6.30 in early 2015.

Ren Zeping also pointed out that in 2015, the internationalization of the RMB will be significantly strengthened, and the monetary authorities will deliberately maintain the relative stability of the renminbi. Therefore, the great devaluation is not to be expected.

In the short term, the strengthening of the RMB devaluation expectation will lead to the trend of outflow of funds will continue to strengthen, which will also significantly increase the pressure on the central bank to lower the quota.

"With the 2015

Increased infrastructure and financing need loose policy support.

In the future, once the foreign exchange occupation is further shrinking and the allocation of US dollars is increased, it is estimated that there will be a full 1~2 reduction in the whole year. "

Wen Bin told reporters, but this does not mean that the policy is loose enough to hedge against the impact of the decrease in foreign exchange holdings.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye Bank (601166, stock bar), also said that in 2015, China's economy still faces greater downward pressure. The differentiation of global monetary policy will further benefit the US dollar, while the bad money is not the US currency. The renminbi will also bid farewell to the long term appreciation channel, and the two-way fluctuation will intensify, which is generally weaker than the US dollar and shows a controllable depreciation trend.

In December 31, 2014, the monetary policy committee of the people's Bank of China convened in December 31, 2014 for the fourth quarter of 2014. The expression of future monetary policy operation basically agreed with the three quarter, but added "more emphasis on tightness and moderation".

The meeting pointed out that we should pay close attention to the latest trends in international and domestic economic and financial and changes in international capital flows, continue to implement prudent monetary policy, pay more attention to tightness and moderation, apply various monetary policy tools flexibly, maintain appropriate liquidity, and achieve reasonable growth in monetary credit and social financing scale.

Further advance

And the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, so as to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.

In the view of Wen bin, the uncertainty of the RMB exchange rate trend in 2015 will increase the uncertainty of the RMB exchange rate trend. It is precisely because of this uncertainty that we will better play the role of the market in the decision of the exchange rate.

For the 2015 RMB exchange rate formation

He believes that the core of the RMB exchange rate reform is to establish a mechanism for marketization, which includes the pition from a reference to a basket of currencies to a basket of currencies, and a further expansion of the RMB exchange rate flexibility, from the current RMB to 2% of the US dollar fluctuation range to 3%, as well as the enrichment of foreign exchange market participants and trading products.