2015 Is Neither Pessimistic Nor Optimistic.

Looking forward to 2015, we need to review 2014 first.

Why is the market booming in the second half of last year? Actually, it is very simple. There are three reasons. The internal reason is that the blue chips are underestimated. The external cause is the reduction of interest rates and the reduction of market liquidity. The third reason is the result of the resultant force of the first two reasons. It is the reconfiguration of private capital. From the account number of securities companies and funds, the average amount of funds per account is higher than that of the high net worth customers in the past few months.

From the perspective of retail investors,

The growth is not obvious, slightly lagging behind; from the institutional point of view, the additional positions of institutions are not particularly obvious, including fund companies, insurance companies and general legal persons.

Therefore, from the perspective of investor structure, the incremental capital in the past three to six months is partly from the increase of leverage, and the principal comes from high net worth customers.

In 2015, we first looked at the keynote of the economy. I think the whole economy is neither warm nor mild. It is not as optimistic and pessimistic as some views are. At present, liquidity is released. The central economic work conference regards growth as a primary goal. I believe that the resources of the central government must be enough to support the growth of the economy.

But it's not too optimistic. It depends on the three carriages.

First of all, exports are not particularly good in 2015. There are two reasons. First, the prices of commodities, oil prices and iron ore prices have fallen sharply. China's exports are half to third of the world's countries. But third of the world's countries are very dependent on energy prices, oil can not be sold, and imports to China will decline. The second reason is that the trend of domestic consumption and imports from the United States has always been synchronous. But in the past two or three years, there has been a division. The competitiveness of China's low-end exports is decreasing. In addition, the changes in the domestic energy structure, the high-end industry in the mainland, and the dependence of IT innovation and service industry on China's imports are not obvious.

From the point of view of consumption, the performance will be good in the vast Midwest, but objectively, for example, the retail investment in Anhui Province, Anhui's investment in leading retail for one year, the adhesion between them is very good. In many central and western provinces, 80% of the economy depends on investment and investment can not be achieved. Consumption over a year is reflected.

In fact, consumption is a car, not a horse. Pulling itself is not easy.

The most complex is investment, the past twenty or thirty years of active thrust, which is based on capacity expansion and international capacity pfer process.

But in the future, the growth of industrial investment is very difficult, because labor, environmental protection, land cost, currency appreciation and other cost factors can not be driven by capacity pfer and capacity expansion.

Therefore, industrial investment will not be too strong.

Real estate used to be the main driving force.

We all say that China's real estate has a bubble. In fact, the bubble is divided into two parts. The supply is too large on the three or four line, and the price is high on the first and second lines. In fact, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and even the northern Guangzhou Shenzhen is in short supply.

Real estate is not a traditional bubble. It is not a case of high supply and high price.

So China's real estate bubble has little chance of collapse in the structural differentiation, but it is worth noticing that the sale of real estate companies is relatively large in the second tier cities, so it has little impact on real estate. However, from the upstream industry chain of reinforcing steel and cement, it is the decisive supply of the three or four line cities, but the inventory of the three or four line cities is there, the population is losing, and the demand is not there.

From the perspective of the entire national economy, interest rates are not sensitive, only real estate is sensitive to interest rates. Therefore, whether or not to cut interest rates will stimulate the economy, the key demand is whether the real estate starts up, and whether the three or four tier cities will respond. I think the initial reaction will not be too obvious, but lowering interest rates several times will result.

Others say,

The share price has risen by 80%, but the fundamentals have not improved.

In fact, this is normal. I wrote "three levers of four cycles". The first wave must be financial stocks, and it has nothing to do with leverage. The first step in the big market is not supported by fundamentals. It is purely the process of valuation repair. The second wave can be pferred to operational leverage and economy. The key is to see the sensitivity of real estate and infrastructure investment to interest rates. In the next three to five years, the main theme is the pfer of local government financing to the central government, or the financing of the central government by local government financing. Before 8%, interest rate financing dropped to 3%.

Overall, from the perspective of investment, industrial investment can not be done. Real estate investment is not necessarily in the early stage. Real estate sales are the leading indicators for starting a project. If it continues, people will be more optimistic and look at the elimination of inventory.

Third see infrastructure investment, infrastructure investment is the bottom line, but not optimistic, mainly look at the source of funds, capital account to take time, so the bottleneck is not a project, it is capital.