Water Skin: Changing Bull Market Is National Conditions

　　事實上，在不少投資者看來，年終年初集中出籠的券商年度報告就可以看成是一種集合指標(biāo)，的確一定程度上是可以作反向指標(biāo)來運用的，因為這是一個大多數(shù)的反映，而股市投資的規(guī)律就是大多數(shù)人賠錢，少數(shù)人掙錢，反映到對市場趨勢的判斷上，大多數(shù)就是錯誤的，只有少數(shù)人是正確的，這是一方面;另外，券商報告的基礎(chǔ)其實是過去，2015年的判斷一般基于2014年的情緒，從邏輯上講，這是一種因果關(guān)系，而因果關(guān)系絕大多數(shù)人都能看清楚，看不清楚的是關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系，由此及彼的聯(lián)想、替代，很少有人從2016年的可能去預(yù)測2015年的市場的;但是，2016年又恰恰就是在2015年后要進(jìn)入的年份，誰能夠割裂它們的關(guān)聯(lián)性呢?那么基于這種邏輯，我們可以分析一下，2016年的經(jīng)濟增速會止跌回升嗎?

The government of 2013, 2014 and 2015

Will China's industrial restructuring have a positive result? Will internationalization of the RMB lead to China's leading role in the international economy? Will the weight of China's capital market rise one by one in the emerging market index?

Will the monetary policy reset really be moderately relaxed? If the answer is no, even if the market in 2015 is a rebound, if the answer is yes, then the 2015 market is a big stage of the process, on or off is repeated, the general keynote is to enter two retreat one.

Now look back, so many brokerages, the direction of the correct judgement is only about 1/10, the most accurate index is about 3000 points of Southwest Securities, and the most firm position is Guotai Junan, although the 400 point is low, but the three wave of judgement is established. It is ridiculous that at the end of the year, a lot of cheers are heard by the broker, but the stock market is down sharply. At the beginning of the year, the market plummeted, and someone jumped out of the bull market immediately.

In contrast, the insistence on private placement seems to be valuable. Zhao Danyang claims that this market is the biggest bull market in human history. Dan Bin jokes that this is a bull market never seen before in Chinese history. The expression is exaggerated, but it is also reasonable. If the Chinese dream is to be realized, then the stock market in China must be a huge market, but most people will not stick to that day.

From 2005 to 2007, the index rose from 998 to 6124, or 5.13 times. It is already a rare market in our lifetime. Is it possible for us to meet again in our lifetime? In fact, if we turn forward, the Shanghai Composite Index will have a minimum of 325 points in 1994, and the Shanghai composite index will be the highest in 1994 to 2245 points, or 5.9 times.

Reform and opening up are unprecedented. Huge market quotations will emerge again and again, and three will always be the minority.

The difference between a big hole and a historical high is very huge, and coincides with the political cycle. It appears in the era of the Yangtze River. It appears in the age of Hu, and it has appeared in the time of the tiger. The historical high point has not yet appeared. This is why, since last August, water skin has been emphasizing that this is the origin of a wave of politically correct prices. Many people do not understand it. It is normal that many people do not understand it. It is because the growth rate of GDP is down. So there will be a market situation. Only if the market can be IPO can we solve the financing difficulties and reduce the risk of banks. Only in this way can we increase the market value and increase the cost of financing and mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, so as to enhance consumption and drive the economic recovery. This is the logic of the current rising market. Perhaps this is not a coincidence. Two of the history of A shares.

Once again, for a country like China, macroeconomic regulation and control is an important form of government existence. It can not be cancelled or even stopped. The rest is only when and where, what intensity and means are different. The essence of macroeconomic regulation and control is the regulation and control against the market, and the reverse regulation.

The so-called policy market, of course, also has the policy market policy failure situation, compared with the previous 2013 and 2012, either policy problems or implementation problems.