Water: The Boom Has Never Been Sustainable.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 115 points a day, or 3.58%, and the gem rose 75 points a day, or more than 5.12%. The figure looks very beautiful, but the crisis is brewing in this craze. On the first trading day in 2015, CCTV's "global financial connection" used a considerable length to report Shanghai and Shenzhen.

The commentary on water skin is somewhat incompatible with the red glow on the screen.

First of all, I would like to answer your questions. Why do we go up so much on the first day?

In fact, this is after a long holiday.

Under normal circumstances, this effect will also appear after the Spring Festival.

During holidays, relatives and friends visit relatives and friends, and the topic of conversation can not be separated from the continuous rising stock market. The center of discussion is nothing more than making more money.

Previously, the water skin in the 2500 point is just a romantic talk. It has been mentioned in the middle school that the Chinese aunt will enter the market after 2500 o'clock. After the 3000 o'clock, the market will generate wealth effect. The flow of people entering the market will be accelerated. Of course, according to the current situation, the Spring Festival in 2015 will also become a bright spot for consumption growth.

Secondly, this is an overcorrection for the "28 phenomena" before the festival, and the rising stock exceeds 80%, showing a rising trend of rising and falling. More exaggerated is the "coal flying color dance" driven by "two barrels of oil". The PetroChina Sinopec's trading limit has been raised, and more than 30 coal shares have also been closed up. The non-ferrous metal plates also follow the trading limit. All these stocks are cyclical stocks, not that they can't rise, but when they are not really able to perform, they can hardly wait to explain two situations. One is to suppress too long to release, and the other is to release them for a long time. Two, it is impossible to find a risk free arbitrage.

Finally, this is a kind of unsustainable inflation, and the market is pforming from optimism to madness. Therefore, it is necessary to remain calm and avoid falling into the fall of the stage market. In any case, the structured bull market intermediate value investment is probably an effective means of risk control.

Maybe in the next two years, we will rise to a figure that we all can not imagine. But unless you are doing stock index futures, you should put it into specific stocks and combine with the prospect of the industry. Finally, we must link up with the achievements of the company, and now China's economy has not yet entered a new round of rising business cycles.

The keynote of the 2015 report is to pour cold water on the market. Throwing cold water does not mean that we ignore China's stock market. Instead, we are looking forward to this bull market, hoping that this bull market can surmount the regular three year cycle and enable more investors to share the dividends of growth, so that the market can avoid the repetition of "5. 30" in history.

Investment is a pleasant thing. Small gambling is easy and big gambling hurts. Anyway, the difference between a bull market and a bear market is not how much money is earned, but how much money is lost. Because in the unit time, the stock market is a game of zero sum, and you earn someone else's compensation. Mahjong theory tells us that the game of "one volume three" is sustainable, and the "three volume one" is not sustainable.

Popularly speaking, it is possible and feasible for a person to earn three people, but in turn, it is impossible and infeasible; because immediately there will be "three missing one", and three people will earn one person to compensate, the person will be out, and the game will be over.

That is to say, regardless of bear market or bull market, losing money is always the majority. The proportion of compensation in bear market is between 60%-70%. The ratio of losing money in bull market is between 50%-60%, and those who earn money are always a minority. The proportion of bear market is not more than 10%, and the bull market will not exceed 30%.

As a barometer of the economy, the stock market acts as an interaction force and reaction force. The economy is the foundation, but the stock market can guide. The 5 years trend of the US stock market has proved this point. Until the first quarter of 2014, some people questioned whether the real recovery of the US economy was true, and the three quarter GDP5% perfectly confirmed the foresight of the Dow.

A shares will also obey the inherent logic of this market. Confidence is accumulated bit by bit. It is not a big business. It takes time, patience and perseverance. The good days of A share are long.