Zhao Danyang Looks At The Development Trend Of A Share Market

Hello, everyone, I believe that there are new and old investors here. Now we are 1st Anniversary faster than our return and product establishment. With this opportunity to share with you the exchange of views, today my PPT is very simple.

The bull market has started. I believe that most people have already shared the first wave of the bull market. In fact, we talked about it last year at the time of last year. You can go over it and repeat it. (Note: last year's speech is also the first public address. Today, there is a reissue. You can also browse to the January 5, 2014 WeChat article of the public number).

First of all, this picture was made last year. The roadmap used on January 3rd and 4 last year, when the Shanghai composite index was around 2050-2100, the market was still a bear market. After six years, we returned from overseas to the A share market. Our view was that the bull market has started and will have the biggest bull market in Chinese history. We were conservative at that time.

In fact, this bull market is the largest bull market in Chinese history, and it has been verified from the volume and trend chart of the first wave. So this bull market may be the biggest bull market in Chinese history and human history.

The three conditions of the bull market were PPT last year. The first one is interest rate downwards. At this time last year, the interest rate of treasury bonds was around 4.8%. Now it should be around 3.8%, which has dropped a lot. The yield of the balance treasure can reach 6% and 7% at that time, and it should be around 4% now.

In the past year, the central bank also lowered interest rates, lowered the repo rate and reduced the deposit reserve ratio of some financial institutions, but this is the first step. As we all know, China is a high savings rate country with a savings rate of more than 50%, which has long been a capital surplus country, so China's future interest rate will continue to decline. Interest rates in the past were somewhat distorted, including local government platforms and real estate debt, which fell after the two scales. Next, the interest rate of the whole market starts to descend, but the downlink is not enough.

In the process of interest rate downtrend, the capital outside the A share market will be under pressure. For example, insurance capital, the cost of financing is 4 or more than 5%. It must find a product that can match this high yield. There are many trust products and financial products before the OTC market can match. In the future, if he can't find it, then he must go to the stock market to find stocks with high dividends and high dividends, and find a matching investment tool on the stock market. At this time, we can see that the reason why the stock market in the first wave bull market is double stock is the reason.

Bull market first wave, 9, October, bonds, high dividends, dividend stocks have gone up very well, after October, Shanghai and Hong Kong through, after the interest rate cut, this has started the bull market the real tipping point.

The second condition of the bull market is the mixed ownership reform. We can see that Sinopec has made a scheme of mixed ownership reform. To be honest, the plan failed to meet the market expectations and changed in form. However, judging from the market evaluation and stock price reaction, it did not achieve its desired expectations.

We believe that the reform of mixed ownership will become faster and faster in 2015 and will be the next tipping point for the big bull market.

If our listed companies introduce a good governance structure to maximize the interests of shareholders, many companies will increase their incomes by 5%-10% in the future, but their profits will increase by 20% and 30%. This is the dividend of governance structure improvement, which will help greatly in raising the share price and raising the valuation. This is a big factor that we think the stock market is going up.

The third point is that the capital market is open. Now that Shanghai and Hong Kong have been opened, Shenzhen and Hong Kong have announced that they will open up. All of these are actually the internationalization of RMB. China, as the largest country in the world's foreign exchange reserves, will also overtake the US in the future. The currency of the big country must be GDP currency. From this premise, China's stock will not only be purchased by Chinese investors, but also will be purchased by investors all over the world. If entering the world such as MSCI index, global capital demand for A shares is still very large.

We feel that after the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the reaction of foreign investors to buy A shares is not as good as expected. But this is only the first step, and overseas funds have not yet come in. As far as we know, many funds in Hongkong need to revise their investment scope and contract. The return on assets in the future will still be very attractive to overseas China. Assets From the next ten years and twenty years, it still has great investment value. When capital enters China, it can not only share the growth of China, but also share the gains of RMB appreciation. The balance treasure has a yield of around 4%, plus RMB appreciation. Overseas capital It still has great attraction. Under these three positive points, we feel that Chinese assets in the future will still be attractive overseas.

Speaking of which, I repeat the view of bull market last year. Until now, my views have not changed, or these three points. These three points will have a greater impact on China's capital market step by step.

Let's take a look at the card composite index. We talked about that in 2004, at 1200 o'clock, we set up the first product of our hearts. At that time, we predicted that the Shanghai composite index would go to 3000-5000, and finally we got to the 6000 point. We went out at more than 3000 o'clock, and then the rate of return on new shares was also good. Finally, we broke up at 5200 and then fell to 1600.

From 1600 to now, actually a big bottom was played, and the bottom played for 6-7 years, playing very solid. In 2014, after ten years, we renewed the new A shares, because we felt that bull market It's coming. Now this point has just risen, so now is the first wave of the bull market.

Although the volume, explosive force and speed of the first wave of the bull market have surprised everyone. Frankly speaking, we didn't expect such an upward speed so quickly. But the first wave and bull market's strength and gains are within our expectation. From our last return to A share last 2014 (January), we really have a rough idea of how the stock market will go in the next 3-5 years and how to anticipate it.

In the past few months, you may have been very busy and busy. But frankly speaking, the past few months have been the most relaxing time for me. In the two or three months, I am basically on holiday. In the future, how to go and how to do the stock market, we actually have a general framework.

We believe that today's bull market is the first wave. The first wave is almost over. The stock market can not rise so fast every day. The first wave needs to be adjusted, digested, or even bad economic data in this position. It is also necessary to take a certain amount of attention, wash it, and wash the large volume so as to go to the next wave. Now the second wave is about to start.

Second after finishing the digestion of the waves, the waves will then enter the main waves. The time for the main waves to rise may be in the second half of this year or what time. But it must go through a certain digestion and exchange of hands to enter the bull market third waves.

The first wave is indiscriminate, and all stocks can go up, and in the Internet age, information transmission and emotional mutual infection, turnover volume is particularly fast, and the market is particularly effective. But the law of the development of a thing still depends on the law itself, but not because of the acceleration of its propagation tools. There must be such a first wave, second waves and third waves. Such a process. Although the first wave is bigger than the previous one, it still needs a process of adjustment and absorption.

Although we have some ideas for the height of this bull market or to what point, we still have no say here. We can say that in this position, from the point of view of value investment, even in this position, it is worth investing in the long run. As long as you buy good companies, you can always sleep well.

Our Hongkong returns this year also can be, two funds, one return is 31%, another has 25.7%. The value investment fund of Hongkong was set up in January 2003. The cumulative return of the past 12 years is 12 times. The Hang Seng Index has more than doubled its returns. The natural selection fund of the innocence heart was set up in March 2009, and the cumulative return to the end of last year is 126%.

The trust scheme of our A shares was founded in January 22nd (2014). The return to the end of 2014 is 51%. The 2 stage of the growth of the red child is set up one month later. It was established in February 20th. The return to the end of the year is 46.5%.

We continue to say that we are firmly committed to this bull market. This bull market is the largest in human history, and the bull market is still far away.

The first wave of the bull market is the restoration of undervalued interest driven by interest rate cuts. Many stocks have gone up a lot, and the undervalued repair is coming to an end. Next, we have to enter the second wave of the bull market. After the bull market and second waves have been digested and digested, we have entered the bull market and third waves. The third wave of bull market must be driven by the performance of listed companies.

Next, the future depends on what companies to buy. Especially now that the registration system has been accelerated, GEM companies and small and medium-sized boards will be more likely to be like Hongkong's penny stocks in the future. As we all know, Hongkong's penny stocks are many cents and 10 Fen. We believe that this will happen in the A share market in the future. In the future, a good company will continue to create new heights, bad companies, speculation and reorganization. After the registration system is launched, there will be no performance support, and the future will fall very badly.

The future is to test the ability to select listed companies and stocks, and to pick up a good company that will share China's economic growth and real performance. Overall, we are very firm and optimistic about the future market.

Our industries are financial industry, high-tech manufacturing industry, consumer goods industry, health care industry and Internet industry.

However, the health care industry, at the beginning of the year, we wanted to invest in this industry, but we didn't invest it when we actually bought it later, because PE (price earnings ratio) is too expensive, and it can also be considered in the future when valuations are not so expensive. Internet industry, we know that gem 60 times, 70 times PE, and will not buy. Today's simple exchange and views are here. We can interact with you below, but we do not talk about stocks.