When The Public Swamp Stocks Surged, When Did The Black Swans Fly Out?

The "fanaticism" of China's stock market is not only reflected in the Shanghai composite index in more than a year, its index rose from more than 2200 points to 3351 points (January 6th), rising by 55% or more. It also showed that during this period, the volume of stock market was rapidly enlarged, and the single day turnover reached the highest level of about 1260000000000 yuan, creating the highest volume of world stock market turnover, and its trading volume was larger than that of the Chinese stock market in one year.

The "fanaticism" of China's stock market is not only reflected in the forecast that China's stock market index has risen more than a wave, but some people think that if compared with the rise in the stock market in India after the financial crisis in 2008, the Shanghai composite index may have reached a 6000 mark in 2015. Moreover, a wave of nationwide stock speculation has also started in China. For example, the news of Chinese residents borrowing money, selling stocks, selling stocks and selling stocks in factories has been flying all over the world. It is reported that a large number of farmers in the suburbs of Beijing are making withdrawals from banks and even ATM machines have been emptied.

In current China, the stock market is surging.

It can be said that not many people can find the reason for the frenzy of the current Chinese stock market, because the frenzy of A shares in China has long thrown away the understanding, experience and common sense of any theory and model.

It has nothing to do with the real economy.

In fact, how much time has China's stock market been a barometer of the real economy over the years? How many times can it be consistent with the real economy?

Therefore, Morgan Stanley Guo Qiangsheng predicts that Shanghai A shares will be up to 4.5 times to 16785 points in 2015.

In his view, there were 6 possibilities for the Shanghai composite index in 2015, with an estimated target range between 2192 and 16785, compared with the current level, which fell from 28% to 453%.

But the possibility of rising is much lower.

In fact, although this prediction has little predictive significance, it does not mean that it has not been said, but it confirms that China's real economy has little to do with the ups and downs of the stock market, and the two have their own way. It is impossible to predict the stock market through these data.

That is to say, the "frenzy" of the current Chinese stock market does not mean that the Chinese real economy will get out of the current predicament, nor is it that China's economy will be better in 2015.

There are signs that the current frenzy in China's stock market is more related to the government's stock market and domestic investors' drive mentality.

Because the sea composite index has risen by more than 55% a year.

The rise of this stock market shows more the government's policy intentions.

For example, how to squeeze out the real estate bubble is the biggest problem in the current Chinese economy.

If we can squeeze out the real estate bubble and make the real estate market adjust to a "soft landing", this is the ideal of the government.

。

How can the government achieve this policy? In view of the rapid rise in the price of China's real estate market over the past decade, it is because domestic residents are using the housing preferential policies of banks to make housing speculation as a tool for making money, and this is also an important reason why domestic A shares are in low spirits for a long time.

If A shares can continue to improve and show a more powerful moneymaking effect, it will be able to guide speculative speculation in the real estate market to leave the real estate market and enter the stock market.

This can further promote A shares to continue to improve, but also the domestic real estate market to achieve a "soft landing" an important step, can kill two birds with one stone.

Moreover, in the past few years, the domestic stock market has been depressed for a long time, resulting in the gradual loss of the financing function of China's stock market.

Under such circumstances, it not only makes domestic enterprises

Narrower and narrower, this also makes the cost of enterprise financing higher and higher.

This not only increases the risk of domestic banking system and financial system, but also allows more liquidity to circulate in the financial system.

If the stock market can improve, it will provide an additional channel for domestic enterprises to raise funds.

If more enterprises can get financing through stock market, they can not only reduce the financing cost of these enterprises, but also reduce the high cost liabilities of these enterprises.

It can also weaken the risk of domestic banking and financial system.

However, from historical experience, any

The fanaticism will eventually be ebb, tulip fever, the South China Sea bubble, Mississippi fever, the American subprime mortgage crisis and so on, and the enthusiasm of the Chinese stock market will not be an exception.

The question is when does the black swan fly out? And where is it flying?

In this regard, we do not have crystal ball, can not give accurate prediction, but a fact is unsustainable.

That is to say, after the US financial crisis, the developed countries are all "deleveraging", while China is the other way round. China uses "leverage" to promote economic growth, the total debt to GDP has increased from 160% to 215%, and credit expansion has become more and more serious.

These huge debts flow into the real estate market and the financing platform of local governments in different ways, which has created a huge bubble in the domestic real estate market.

In 2014, the domestic real estate market began to adjust periodically, but the government was afraid that the real estate bubble burst and triggered systemic risk. Therefore, it was also a "leverage plus" approach, hoping to let more investors pour into the real estate market under high housing prices, as in 2009.

But this policy effect is not obvious, but in the following aspects, that is, the serious oversupply of real estate, the implementation of the real estate registration ordinance in March, the deep development of anti-corruption, the more difficult financing of real estate enterprises, the rise of stock market and the withdrawal of housing investors from the market, thus making the domestic real estate market face greater risks in 2015.

Not only has the national housing price declined for 8 consecutive months, but sales of housing have declined.

For example.

In the first week of January, housing sales in Beijing fell by 50%.