The Mainland Will Cut Interest Rates In 2015 And The Stock Market Is Uncertain.

When the US QE (quantitative easing) policy ended in November 2014, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy finally returned to the "normal" long road to review the reaction of central banks at the time of the financial tsunami.

　　 U.S.A The Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates in September 2007 (which is very normal, because the source of the financial tsunami is in the US). By the end of 2008, the federal funds rate had dropped to 0.25 percentage points, but the economy still did not improve. It announced the introduction of the QE policy. Unfortunately, in the presidential election of the United States, there was a "lame duck" phenomenon in the short term. At the end of the election, Obama signed the decree and the QE came into effect in March 2009.

The Chinese people went ahead one by one, and launched a 4 trillion yuan stimulus in November 2008. Economic plan As a result, the share price of state-owned enterprises and property prices rose sharply, because the silver code was too large, not only the A share index rose sharply, but also the mainland property prices rose sharply in the same period. By July 2009, the bank announced that the interest rate increase and tightened monetary policy slightly. A share index Prices began to fall, but property prices rose by a litre until 2014.

　　 Yen is weak, but tourism is not cost-effective.

The Bank of England also announced a reduction in interest rates after the financial crisis. In 2008, the British Parliament read the anti-terrorism bill three. Iceland and other overseas depositors took large deposits in the UK and transferred them to what they considered safe. During the period, the sterling exchange rate dropped from 1 to 2 dollars to 1.5 dollars (my elder Cao was also one of the victims). The European Central Bank is worried about the stability of banks due to the rise of bad debts. It has announced that commercial banks must increase capital adequacy ratio and further tighten their money in disguised form. The Bank of Japan did not act until Abe Shinzo was elected prime minister in 2012. He proposed the "three arrows policy" to stimulate Japanese stocks to rise and the Japanese yen to fall. Then, from April 2014, the consumption tax rose from 6% to 8%, resulting in a negative growth of GDP in the second and three quarters of 2014 and an economic recession.

The Japanese yen's exchange rate dropped from 100 yen in June 2014 to US $1 against the recent 122 yen to US $1. Although it helped Japan export (but its exports accounted for only about 12% of Japan's GDP), it was disadvantageous to the consumer market. Since the sales tax rose from 6% to 8%, the consumption market that accounted for GDP reached 76%, assuming that the export of Japan increased by 20%, which could only make GDP more 2.4%. However, the consumption market has shrunk, 10%, which has reduced the GDP to less than 20%. After the two offset each other, Japan's GDP still fell in 2014. So simple mathematics, Andouble did not know how to calculate.

It is also illogical that the Japanese exchange rate is down to 20%. Even if the rental rate is 5, the loss of investment (HK dollars) is still up to 15%, the typical smart fool behavior; moreover, Japan has already faced the shrinking population (from the peak of 2007 to more than 120 million people to 80 million in 2050). What is the economic theory of buying property in a country with a decreasing population and expecting a rise in property prices? It is another wrong decision to travel to Japan, because most of the Japanese hotel charges are calculated in US dollars (rather than Japanese yen). The number of tourists in recent years has increased. Most of the Japanese hotels have announced the increase (or cancel the discount) of 10%, resulting in a lot of increase in travel expenses to Japan. It was suggested that Hong Kong people should be How much cheaper is shopping in Japan to offset the increase in hotel charges?

Will Japan's debt crisis trigger a third fall in 2015?

　　 Dealing with the tsunami reserve office is a good thing to do.

Since 2005, China has faced a decline in demographic dividend and has to invest heavily in capital goods. Japan's proximity to China should be a beneficiary of China's economic transition. Unfortunately, the Japanese government adopted an unfriendly attitude towards China, forming China's preference for Germany in the import of "capital goods" and abandoning Japan, creating a huge increase in Germany's exports to China in the past 10 years, but Japan's "capital goods" failed to develop its market in China.

The implementation of the election was delayed for half a year before it was put into operation. It was only a lack of experience in the rescue of the city in November 2008. It was only a lack of experience, and at the same time, too much money was released, resulting in a rise in property prices in the mainland and a gradual disconnection with the purchasing power of the people. The European Central Bank, because of too many members of the European Union, had "many voices and miscellaneous noises", instead of raising the bank's capital adequacy ratio in the face of the crisis, and raised the debt crisis of some member states. The Central Bank of Japan failed to prevent the bubble from expanding at the end of 1980s. After the bubble burst, the Bank of Japan began to cut interest rates until June 1990. In the face of the international financial tsunami, the Japanese yen exchange rate continued to rise to the level of 76 yuan against the US $1, without taking any action until Andouble came to power. From the central bank's response to this financial tsunami, the Fed was doing well (in September 2007, when the Dow was still rising, interest rates had been cut, and QE was put forward in September 2008 only because

The situation is like a burst of blood vessels, such as first aid within one hour, the opportunity to face sequelae can be reduced to the minimum, but after 24 hours of treatment, the chance of sequelae is very large.

"The Bank of Japan has made a few slow reactions in the past. It is really" rescue disabled. "It seems that after the election of the prime minister, the central bank should be restructured (or strengthening the independence of the central bank, without having to look at the faces of senior officials for fear that everything will be slow).

Oil prices in December 2014 dropped by more than 30% compared with the peak in June. (most American families spend more than $1000 a month in fuel costs), and the drop in oil prices makes most American households spend more than 300 dollars a month on other consumption, similar to tax rebates. In recent years, the wealth effect generated by the rise of US stocks and the US dollar index rose nearly 14% in the past six months (from 79 in May 2014 to more than 90 points), making the United States consumer market appear cheap products. The above factors support the further rise of us GDP in 2015.

In 2014, OPEC produced 38% of the world's total oil output, and this oil price dropped by 30%, partly because of the rise in the US dollar exchange rate. OPEC to increase OPEC's share of global oil production in order to combat shale oil production, oil prices must be maintained at $60 a barrel or below for more than a year, because 80% shale oil companies have already taken oil out for "protective umbrella". Only in this way, OPEC will be hurt. You can refer to the cost of crude oil production.

　　 Three cheap advantage gradually lost online shopping arises at the historic moment

In 1978, the Chinese government announced the implementation of the policy of reform and opening to the outside world and transformed China's economy through attracting foreign investment. In the past 30 years, China has changed from "small peasant economy" to "industrial society", and farmers have become workers, so that the per capita income of the mainland (excluding inflation) has risen by more than 10 times in 30 years, and 600 million of the Chinese have lifted poverty and made China the world's factory. But in the long run, China began to face the demographic dividend gradually disappearing in 2007, and the wages of workers had entered a period of substantial increase (up to 14% per year since 2007). In 2014, the wages of mainland workers were more than doubled, and the cost of land rose substantially. In addition, raw materials were unable to cope with huge demand after China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002.

After the global financial tsunami from October 2007 to March 2009, China's economy can no longer rely on exports, and must enter another new stage to lead China into another OECD country. Creative destruction began in October 2007, and manufacturing industry's "three cheap" (cheap wages, cheap resources, cheap land) lost its advantages. It must rely on consumption to maintain a relatively high GDP growth in China. In 2009, a large number of infrastructure projects were launched, and the rise in property prices led China to take a big step towards a consumer oriented society. Unlike the United States, the United States has entered the consumer society to breed huge shopping malls, such as Sears, Best Buy, WAL-MART and so on. China has rapidly developed online shopping. Through the popularity of smart phones, online shopping, online games, online banking, online... China has become the first country to enter E-Tailing.

Since 2005, China's Internet business has been growing at an average rate of 188% per year, so far there has been no slowdown. At present, there are more than 600 million Internet users in China. About 300 million people have online shopping experience. Online shopping must be supported by the logistics industry, and the logistics industry needs to complete the transportation network. In 2014, more than 1 million large cities in mainland China had more than 160 cities, and freeway and high-speed rail links them together, so that online shopping services can be delivered to the public within 12 hours.

"China became the world's factory in 2007 and became the largest online shopping country in the world in 2014. Not only that, China's high-speed rail began to expand to neighboring countries, online shopping services began to expand to the world, China entered the service economy from the industrial society."

China's GDP has ended its double digit growth period over the past 30 years, slowing down to an annual growth rate of about 6%. The global supply of raw materials is in short supply, and gold, silver, copper, iron, coal and oil have all dropped sharply.

Since the founding of new China, the birth rate has been rising. By 1978, a large number of young people aged between 20 and 30 were absorbed by the "industrialization" and promoted the double digit growth of GDP in China for 30 consecutive years. By 2007, these young people had stepped into retirement age at the age of 55, and China's demographic dividend began to disappear. The second wave of demographic dividend began in 2002. Through the accession to the WTO, the demand for Chinese products increased greatly overseas. The generation born in 1978 had the opportunity to receive good education. In 2002, the new generation began to work in the community. Because the education level is generally higher than that of the rural parents, most of them do not plan to go back to the countryside, so they become the "new force of purchasing power" in big cities, and are buying their homes with the assistance of their parents. Is this home fever craze ending in 2014?