Deconstructing The Operational Pattern Of China's Stock Market In 2015 And Seizing The Opportunity

From the perspective of the big cycle, this bull market is still in the first wave of bull market in the past six months. In the next 3 years, it will at least be in the operation of the big bull market. This is the most basic bull market duration, because the Chinese stock market has been in the bear market for 7 years in the past, and the adjustment is very sufficient. Therefore, the new bull market is bound to run for several years. Our preliminary analysis pointed out that the new bull market is bound to break through the previous bull market's high point of 6124 points, and hit a new high. Of course, this may be one or two years from now.

Looking forward to the new year and looking forward to 2015, we believe that China's stock market will present the following pattern of operation:

First, deepening reform will continue to be the most powerful driving force for strengthening the market and the market, so as to deepen the reform of the bull market. At the eighth meeting of the recent deep restructuring, Xi Jinping stressed that 2014 was the beginning of a comprehensive deepening of the reform, and the year 2015 was the key year for deepening the reform. This has already pointed out the big pattern of the stock market in 2015, that is, on the basis of the initial success of the stock market reform in 2014, in the deepening of reform in 2015, the stock market is bound to go up again. Only when the stock market goes up, state-owned assets increase substantially, investors are mostly profitable, business performance and financing growth can effectively promote the transformation of China's economy. This is the pattern of win win and the most important symbol of the success of reform.

Second, Shanghai and Hong Kong through and financing funds will continue to provide strong financial support for the stock market. Shanghai and Hong Kong have opened the door for overseas capital to enter A shares. In the future, there will be more overseas funds coming in, and these overseas funds will buy heavy weights such as blue chips and so on, so as to stabilize or promote the market. Financing funds will also continue to increase. It is expected that brokers will increase their capital and expand their shares to provide more funds for investors. In addition, when the bull market profit effect spread, real estate funds and household savings will continue to enter the market, forming a situation of universal stock speculation.

Third, the new registration system is right. market Far-reaching impact. Registration system has been set up and is expected to be implemented by the end of 2015. Because of the first plan, it is estimated that the registration system in mid 2015 will be basically clear and the market will also respond ahead of schedule. The registration system will greatly increase the supply of stocks, which is essentially bad, especially for non blue chips. bad performance stock Gem and so on are all fatal attacks, which will aggravate the 28 phenomenon that the market has formed. Therefore, if we can not update the investment idea and follow the mainstream capital operation in 2015, the income may be worse than that in 2014.

Fourth, from Market The trend of operation is expected to continue the first wave of bull market in the first quarter of 2015, and then adjust to the two wave of bull market. In terms of the rise index, the first wave of bull market actually started at 1849 points in June 2013. If it doubled, it would be 3700 points, which was close to the 3478 wave of the last bear market's big B wave. Therefore, the high point of this market may be at 3500-3700 points, and then may be adjusted to two waves under the negative pressure of registration system. However, since the big trend is bull market, the two wave is likely to adjust to the shock of the box.

Fifth, the mainstream market opportunities will remain on the blue chips, and the 28 phenomenon will become the norm. Only when the blue chips increase dramatically, can they turn to non blue chip stocks. What needs to be emphasized again is that the blue chips, such as brokerages, banks, insurance and other financial stocks, are still the backbone and support of the bull market. They are the focus of buying big funds and the leading companies in the market. Second, cyclical second tier blue chips are also facing big opportunities, including electricity, coal, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, real estate, and so on. Consumer, pharmaceutical and other non cyclical industries will continue to bull market. In terms of theme investment, the reform of the whole area and the reform of state-owned enterprises is the focus, and the reform of military industry is still a major concern.

We believe that if we have anticipated and grasped the above pattern, we will get a good return in 2015. We say that the first wave of bull market will fill all the valuation depressions, so the focus of the operation is still blue chips undervalued.