The Stock Market Has A Perfect Ending: Look Ahead And See A Lot.

I remember that in 2013, from the 585 point of the gem, according to the national policy of vigorously developing the information industry, I firmly believe in the gem, and indeed I have gained 585-1571 or 168.5% increase in the growth enterprise market.

However, since the beginning of 2014, in view of the fact that the majority of the stock market of GEM has increased too much and the valuation is too high, according to the high and low level conversion principle of "high shore as the valley and deep valley as the tomb", we have made the prediction of "2014 gem is a small year".

Although some gem growth stocks are doing well this year, the final increase is only 12.8%, far behind the other three indices.

Especially after mid December, the gem appeared an avalanche like collapse, from 1674-1450 points, half a month fell to 14%, heavy holdings of shareholders suffered heavy losses.

Profound lessons show that: the amazing performance of the strong hot spots in the past, the brilliant achievements captured in the dark horse stocks, and the vision for a better future from the beautiful trend are always deeply branded in memory, and it is easy to solidify the thought that led to success, and become a fixed mindset, thus violating the principle of contradiction pformation of dialectics, and lost a big market in the stock market in 2014.

Today, with the diversification of stock market structure and the diversification of market force and capital style, whether it is an index or a hot hot plate, it must rise or fall after the big rise. After the "big year", it must be "a small year".

This is a stock market rule that investors should draw.

This is my early prediction of the stock market in 2014.

Although many people did not agree with the bad economic situation at the beginning, the Shanghai composite index at the end of the year was far ahead of the 52.9% increase (if the increase was 64% from the lowest 1971 points), it has been confirmed.

Although I only looked at the market growth of small and medium sized stocks at 1971-2500 o'clock in late 1-11, I also underestimated empirically the shortage of stock market stocks, bank shares, and stock market capitalization in the following month.

However, due to the success of the first 11 months, and this month, we have seized the concept of state-owned assets reform, Disney concept stocks and military concept stocks, which are the two sources of "28" and "82".

I am cautious about the market in 2015, and think that the stock market is a "small year" in 2015, and the index's rising space is limited.

First, the fast bull market in late 1 months of November is a bit crazy.

From 2500 points in November 24th to 3234 points in December 31st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 30.1% on just 28 trading days.

The speed, the speed of the increase and the steep slope of the rising slope are staggering.

Secondly, there are irrational elements in the speculation of cyclical industries and surplus industries.

Third, regulatory measures to curb fast bull and mad cow are being launched.

In the early December, when the first trillion day trading volume and 3000 points were first recorded, the two official media of the Xinhua news agency and the people's Daily published 9 articles and 6 articles singing many stock market articles at the end of August abruptly changed their tone, and criticized the "mad cow" and the myth of "creating high leverage on the stock market".

Subsequently, the chairman of the SFC announced that the issuance of new shares would be appropriately increased in a timely and appropriate manner next year.

The SFC sent a working group to check the total financing of 40 brokerages and the leverage ratio of customers. It is expected that there will be a document that strictly limits the total amount and proportion of financing. The SFC once released a list of 18 stock manipulation companies, and arrested 39 fund managers involved in "old rat farm".

The CBRC also issued a financial examination for six months to check the illegal entry of bank credit funds into the stock market.

The Ministry of finance also requires commercial banks to write off bad debts and eliminate the moisture in their performance.

It is obvious that management has restrained the mad cow, cooled the stock market and forced the market to take a slow action.

The 2800 point -3200 interval needs to make up a missed lesson and carry out a full shake.

I think the high point in 2015 is likely to appear before and after the "two sessions" and fall to the 3200-3500 point.

The height will not exceed 3800 points, and the room for increase is only 10-20%.

That's far worse than the 52.9% gain in 2014.

The 10 year bull market of the US stock market in the 90s of last century, and the bull market in the past five years, rose by an average of only 20% annually.

As for the second half of 2015, there is still no bigger market and higher level, which is largely restricted by the registration scheme and the speed of expansion, which is difficult to predict at present.