Gem: The Second Big Bull Market Is Coming.

Wang Hongyuan, CO chairman of Qianhai open source fund company, issued an open letter in the evening of December 30, 2014, saying that in the next 5-10 years, A shares will not be neither a bull market nor a bull market, nor a bull market, but a big bull market. As a home participant in China's capital market, there are two big bull market opportunities that can not be missed in the wealth life. It is the first time in 2006 and 2007, the second time now. But in this Potter bull market, A shares may have hundreds of shares to be cut.

Wang Hongyuan is the deputy general manager and investment director of the former southern fund company. He is also known as Wang Yawei in the public offering circle. He is known as "North has Wang Yawei, and South has Wang Hongyuan". In April 2009, Wang Hongyuan left the southern fund company, joined CITIC Securities and took charge of the self operation Department. At the end of 2013, Wang Hongyuan returned to the public offering to join the newly established Qianhai open source fund company as co chairman.

In Wang Hongyuan's view, the leading plate of 2015 and 2016 will be "one center and two basic points of the middle line": a center is centered on blue chips, two basic points, one is financial real estate, the other is traditional cycle blue chips, or old economic cycle stocks.

Wang Hongyuan said that the market will enter the bull market consolidation and differentiation stage from next year to about 2015 years, that is, between 2016 and 2016. At this stage, there are two figures - "double 30%", the first 30%, that is, the next two years, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, that is, the blue chips index will rise by about 30%. At the same time, the small market share, the theme stock and the concept stock index represented by the gem index will fall 30% in the next two years, "a positive 30%, a negative 30%".

Due to the impact of Shanghai Hong Kong pass and registration system, the next two years may be the more than 20 year history since 1991. The most obvious two years of China's stock market big blue chips are small market value stocks.

From the perspective of stocks, Wang Hongyuan believes that hundreds of shares of A shares may fall by 50% or more. It indicates that one thousand equity and mixed equity funds are likely to lose more than half of the fund in the next two years, because the allocation of blue chips is still low, and the market capitalization of small and medium capitalization funds is still high, and the ability to resist the registration system and the international valuation system is weak.

"Over the past two years, more than 20% of the fund can be found everywhere, but 20% of the funds will be everywhere. Two years later, the leading force of retail and retail thinking on the A share market will fall to below 49% for the first time since China's stock market in 1991. We will remember in the future that retail and retail thinking will not be eliminated in the bull market or destroyed in the bear market, and will be eliminated in the tide of foreign capital entry and registration. Wang Hongyuan said.

Wang Hongyuan is extremely optimistic about the high market in the future. He shouted, before and after 2017, when China's real economy hit the bottom on a high quality basis, after the end of the concentrated impact of registration system and internationalization, the A share market will be expected to enter the high quality long bull and ox slow phase, set a new high in the 100th anniversary years before and after the founding of the Communist Party of China in 2021, and simultaneously surpass the US stock market capitalization and the US GDP with GDP, becoming the world's largest capital market. The following is Wang Hongyuan's open letter.

China's stock market in 2015 was a bull market under a bear market atmosphere.

One. The current market is going to be the second bull market in the history of A shares.

In the next 5-10 years, A shares will not be neither a bull market nor a bull market, nor a bull market, but a big bull market. Looking back at the historical development of emerging market stock markets, there are generally two big bull markets, and China is no exception. The first big bull market is the popularity of stock among its people. From the top 1% in 2006, the Chinese hold Chinese stocks, and now 10% of Chinese hold Chinese stocks. The second is the popularity of domestic stock among the people of the world. That is to say, 1% of the world's people hold A shares. In the future, 10% of the world's people will own A shares. At present, the A share has not been widely allocated by the people of the world. After the A share is included in the MSCI index, the global capital will start to configure A shares. It is estimated that the passive funds will be transferred to the warehouse and the Shanghai Composite Index will reach more than 6000 points. At that time, A shares will become the common quality assets of the people of the whole world, and China and the United States will really achieve integration, just like the US and Europe. Once the asset allocation of large categories is missed, it is impossible to make up for it. As China capital market There are two big bull market opportunities that can not be missed in the wealth life. 2006 and 2007 are the first time, and now is the second time.

Two. The preheating stage of this big bull market: the partial bull market stage or the structural bull market stage from December 2012 to July 2014.

The bear market in China's A share market has officially ended in December 2012, the landmark date is December 4, 2012. After the eighteen chairman Xi took office, he made a quick tour of the south. After the South inspection, the bear market of China's stock market has ended. The bear market means that the process of collectives and collectives of various types of stocks has ended. The structural bull market and the local bull market have already started. They can also be called the transitional economy and the bull market of the new economy. During the period, the Shanghai Composite Index has been consolidating around 2000 points, sorted out and sorted out, and now it is going to rise by two hundred or three hundred points. It will also drop. Later, in the "money shortage", there were 1849 such low points. But we do not think this will change the fact that the local bull market has begun.

Three. The confirmation and rapid upgrading stage of the current bull market: the blue chip revolution from July 2014 to December 2014

The brewing and launching of the "one way and one side" makes the market's expectation of China's economy change from a hard landing to a soft landing expectation, which is the theoretical basis for the blue chip market to repair the market. After that, the market rose by one thousand points in just a few months, and the blue chips entered a fast rising stage. The landmark event was the rise of financial real estate stocks represented by the securities dealers.

Four. Analysis of the long line (5-10 years) and the central line (2015 and 2016) of the leading bull market.

First of all, let's talk about the long line. The leading plate of five to ten years will be "one center and two basic points". A center refers to the center of national security and military industry under the current domestic and international situation. With the US's return to the Asia Pacific region, the deterioration of relations between NATO and Russia, the ferment of the Middle East geopolitical situation brought about by the strategic withdrawal of the US oil shale gas revolution, the international situation has entered a very significant strategic period of concussion, which is rare after the end of the cold war. Under such circumstances, China's two reforms, two opening-up, two development, two pioneering work and leaping over the middle-income trap must focus on national security. Two basic points: first, institutional dividends, namely, the reform of state-owned enterprises, the reform of mixed ownership, the decentralization of profits, the reform of free trade zones, etc. the other basic point is the transfer of rural land, agriculture and rural areas. So we say that we can see the long lead from five to ten years. plate That is what we have just said, "take the national security and the military industry as the center, take the system bonus and the big agriculture and the countryside as the two basic points".

The leading plate in 2015 and 2016 will be "one center and two basic points in the middle line": a center is centered on blue chips, two basic points, one is financial real estate, the other is traditional cycle blue chips, or old economic cycle stocks.

Five. Epicycle bull market It will soon enter the stage of consolidation and differentiation: "bull market stage under the bear market atmosphere".

The market will enter the bull market consolidation and differentiation stage from next year to about 2015 years, that is, between 2016 and 2016. At this stage, we will talk about two figures. You can remember: the "double 30%" and the first 30%, that is, the next two years, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, that is, the blue chips index will rise by about 30%. At the same time, the small market share, subject stock and stock index, represented by the gem index, will fall 30% in the next two years, a positive 30%, a negative 30%. Due to the impact of Shanghai and Hong Kong through the registration system, the next two years may be the more than 20 year history since 1991. The most obvious and significant two years for Chinese stock market blue chips to win the small market value theme stocks.

From the perspective of stocks, hundreds of stocks may fall by 50% or more. Take one thousand equity and mixed equity fund as an example, there may be more than half of the fund losses in the next two years, because the allocation of blue chips is still low on the whole, and the market capitalization of small and medium capitalization is still high, and the impact of anti registration system and International Valuation system is weak. Over the next two years, more than 20% of the fund will be everywhere, but 20% of the funds will be everywhere. Two years later, the leading force of retail and retail thinking on the A share market will fall to below 49% for the first time since the stock market in 1991. We will remember in the future that retail and retail thinking will not be eliminated in the bull market or eliminated in the bear market, and will be eliminated in the tide of foreign capital entry and registration system.