The Trend Of China'S "New Normal" A Share Trend

In 2015, China's monetary policy will show a "stable and loose" pattern, first of all, need to be "stable".

We must never release the "4 trillion" at a time like 2009, and then we need to "slightly slack".

At the same time, we suggest reducing the deposit reserve ratio in an all-round way.

First, it has its objective necessity.

Because small and micro enterprises are small in scale, low in reputation, low in profitability and poor in resistance to risk, they often become the object of commercial banks' reluctance to lend, and loans are even more difficult under the condition of generally tight liquidity.

Second, it is also feasible.

On the one hand, at present, China's deposit reserve ratio is as high as 20%, which is the highest proportion of deposit reserve rate in China's history, and there is enough room for reduction. On the other hand, China's inflation level is not high at present, especially the producer price index of industrial products has been in a "negative growth" state for a long time.

As to whether or not to continue to cut interest rates, the interest rate reduction is carried out under the background of the macroeconomic situation is not good. Precisely because of this, when enterprises make money more and more difficult, and the expectations for the future are not good, many enterprises will have a wait-and-see attitude towards loans.

If the macroeconomic situation is improving and the enterprises' expectations for the future are better, then we can consider continuing to cut interest rates, so that we can have a definite purpose. Otherwise, we will lose the real meaning.

As for real estate, China's real estate market will not be "hot" in 2015.

On the one hand, buyers have fundamentally changed their expectations, and no longer believe that prices will rise. On the other hand, the current high vacancy rate of real estate is restricting the rise of housing prices.

2 Tang Min, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank's representative office in China, does not mean turning monetary policy to lower benchmark interest rates.

As for the trend of China's monetary policy in 2015, a popular argument is that China's monetary policy will shift to easing with the interest rate cut.

However, lowering the benchmark interest rate does not mean the turning of monetary policy.

Although the economic growth is facing certain downward pressure, the employment situation is good, and the economic structural adjustment has made positive progress. There is no need to take strong stimulus measures.

Then, where will China's macro-economic growth come from in 2015? The "new normal" that will come from economic development: first, infrastructure interconnection and new technologies, new products, new formats and new business models, such as the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "maritime Silk Road in twenty-first Century", the Yangtze River economic belt, and the new urbanization.

Second, we will introduce personalized and diversified consumption from the mainstream, such as modern service industry, including financial industry, pension and leisure service industries. Therefore, we should pay more attention to market and consumer psychological analysis, and pay more attention to guiding social expectations.

Third, the balance between domestic demand and external demand, the balance between imports and exports, and the balance between foreign investment and foreign investment.

The experience of Shanghai free trade pilot area will be extended to many parts of the country. Expansion will bring many opportunities to economic growth.

In addition, investors can no longer rely on real estate to support the rapid growth of the economy. After many years of hot real estate is in the process of adjustment, once the house prices fall too fast, it will have a huge impact on the economy and finance.

From the Asian financial crisis to the US debt crisis and then to the European debt crisis, it has nothing to do with the real estate crash.

Take a closer look at all the data falling in 2014, almost all related to the decline in real estate investment and the downturn in real estate.

3 the best policy of Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of Bank of China, is "tighten up and moderate".

One of the important signs of the "new normal" of the economy is the pformation and upgrading of the economy. In the traditional sense of economic growth mode, such as real estate supporting economic growth has been inadequate, and strategic emerging industries will become a new locomotive to promote economic growth. Logistics, Internet, service, health, pension industries and other industries are becoming new growth industries in China's economy.

The best monetary policy under the new normal is "tight and moderate" monetary policy.

Although the central bank has cut interest rates, it does not mean that monetary policy is turning loose, because M2 has not increased much.

The trend of monetary policy in 2015 will show a phenomenon of "stability and looseness", which will be reflected in the following aspects: first, as 2015 will remain low inflation, the annual consumer price increase will be around 2%, which objectively gives room for further interest rate cuts, and interest rates may be reduced slightly, reflecting a frequency of interest rate cuts throughout the year.

Second, the probability that the central bank will drop in 2015 is very low.

Because the gap in liquidity is not so great, and at the same time, the cumulative effect of several "quasi directing" actions implemented by the central bank since 2014 will be gradually reflected.

"The relaxation of monetary policy is aimed at raising aggregate demand, but the problem of employment is not serious now. In the first three quarters of this year, the number of employment has reached 10 million 820 thousand, which has exceeded the target of 10 million people in the whole year. Therefore, there is no need for monetary policy to stimulate aggregate demand."

4 Zhang Yidong, chief strategist of Xingye Securities Co., Ltd., both big and small indexes are rising. The Internet mode is more creative.

In 2015, reform, innovation and "China dream" have gradually become the new consensus of the masses and the tide of the times. At least, they will enhance their confidence in China at least.

Under such circumstances, monetary policy in 2015 will be more active and flexible, which will significantly increase the use of price instruments and actively promote asset securitization, thereby reducing the cost of social financing.

Therefore, the big and small index will rise in 2015, but the relative increase will be relatively small.

It is different; blue shares are "pigs on the draught". To take advantage of the situation, they are always aggressive and violent while taking advantage of the situation. But in the process of value revaluation, there will be "ceiling resistance".

By contrast, the field of re shaping the Internet business model is more creative.

Specifically, there are three areas of concern: one is the advanced manufacturing industry that benefits from new logic and new needs.

Two is financial innovation and new round of Asset Securitization under the tide of non bank finance.

The three is sports and the Internet.

"Industry 4" is a major trend in the future. It will promote the common development of many industries, including sensors, software, communications, industrial automation equipment, etc. the output of high-speed rail and nuclear power as China's manufacturing industry has been recognized by the market, followed by new orders, and the "one belt and one way" strategy is expected to bring "new markets".

The stock market valuation is at a low level, and the stock price is expected to usher in Davies's double attack in 2015.

In terms of sports industry chain and Internet, he is optimistic about the development of online education, mobile payment, digital marketing, online medical care and vehicle networking.

In addition, the theme of the reform of state-owned enterprises, Hercynian, Disney, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, the "13th Five-Year plan", and overseas mergers and acquisitions were also worthy of attention in 2015.

5 Galaxy Securities chief strategist Sun Jianbo deepen reform and optimistic industry trend change industry

From the perspective of reform, 2014 is the first year of comprehensive deepening reform. In 2015, all reforms will go forward drastically.

Financial reform,

Major reforms such as reform, price reform, land reform and SOE reform may take a key step.

If these reforms are going well, they will increase momentum and confidence in the market.

Generally speaking, the reform policy in 2015 is basically clear.

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Look, the long and underestimated blue chips are in the downside. In the downward trend of market interest rates, the valuation center will move upward, such as banks, real estate, steel, construction, pportation, household appliances, automobiles, food and beverages.

At the same time, small cap investment needs to be constantly changing.

Over the past two years, there are many opportunities for growth stocks, but they are not static, but are constantly innovating and changing themes.

Therefore, large cap stocks may exhibit impulse fluctuations.

For the plate opportunities, the strategic layout of the industry in 2015 should be the strategic trend of economic development. The industries that benefit from the trend of industrial development will be characterized by high-end manufacturing, public consumption, new trends in science and technology, and new capital thinking.

Among them, manufacturing high-end includes high-speed rail industry chain, military industry, equipment localization, new materials, cars and so on, while in terms of consumption citizenization, it focuses on the deepening of insurance in the civil society, consumer finance, brand consumer goods (food, clothing, etc.), service industry (stylistic leisure service), land reform and urban public services; from the new trend of science and technology, it mainly pushes robots, 3D printing, new energy vehicles, intelligent life services and so on. In terms of new capital thinking, it proposes to pay attention to mixed ownership reform, new three boards, venture capital + mergers and acquisitions, employee stock ownership plan and so on.

From the point of view of the theme, in 2015, we focused on the reform of state-owned enterprises, the "going out", the price reform and the land reform.