Strong Stock Market Will Become An Unexpected Variable, So That The Economy Begins To "Soar".

　　 GDP grew by about 7% in 2015.

　　 Investment Growth rate continued to decline, which is the main reason for the downward pressure on the economy. In the first three quarters of 2014, China's fixed asset investment increased by 16.1% over the same period last year, a record low since 2002. Among them, the real estate industry has said goodbye to the high growth period in the past. Only one slowdown in investment growth has directly slowed down GDP growth by over 0.3 percentage points. Investment in real estate and infrastructure construction has declined, causing the manufacturing market to shrink and investment to fall faster.

At the same time, international market The lack of recovery has made the manufacturing industry redundant. In the first three quarters of 2014, China's foreign trade import and export volume increased by only 3.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate of industrial added value was once at a low level since the international financial crisis in 2008.

In December 15th, the economic blue book issued by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the official think tank: the analysis and prediction of China's economic situation in 2015 (hereinafter referred to as the blue book) shows that under the dual pressure of strengthening domestic resources and environmental constraints and the unstable international economic recovery, China's economy has entered the new normal of structural optimization, price inflation tends to be moderate, new employment tends to be stable, and the new economic growth trend is at a potential level. China's GDP growth is expected to be around 7% in 2015.

UBS Securities expects all listed company profits to grow by 7% in 2015, including net profit of non-financial enterprises increased by 5% (compared with 2014), and net profit of financial enterprises increased by 8% (3 percentage points lower than 2014), because net interest margin of banks is expected to shrink.

　　 China's economy Profound changes are taking place.

If the economic forecast continues to decline, does it mean that China's economy will not recover? The answer is: No.

"Under the new normal background, the economic growth rate is higher, or lower, it is not important in itself, the key depends on the quality of economic operation." Economist Song Qinghui said in an interview with the daily economic news reporter.

Sheng Laiyun, director of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the national economic statistics department, pointed out that from the new normal perspective, China's economy is undergoing a series of significant and profound changes. The industrial structure is pregnant with new breakthroughs. The proportion of "three industries" continues to improve, and the service industry's value-added is faster than that of the industry. The demand structure has changed positively, the investment growth rate has continued to slow down since 2014, the export growth has begun to shift, and the consumption's pulling effect on the economic growth has continued to increase. In the first three quarters of 2014, the contribution of the last consumption to the economic growth was 48.5%, which contributed 7 percentage points higher than the total growth of the capital formation, and the consumption of resources and environment cost decreased. The energy consumption per unit GDP in the first three quarters decreased by 4.6%.

In Song Qinghui's view, it is not easy to maintain stable operation in the face of growth rate shifting period, structural adjustment pains, and the "three phases" of the early stimulus policy digestion period. It is estimated that by the end of 2015, China's economic growth will be about 1 percentage points lower than the current level. This requires that we set a reasonable economic target and take the initiative to adapt to the new normal of economic development.

　　 Three driving forces to boost economic growth

Teng Tai, chairman of the Huambo brothers Asset Management Co, told the daily economic news reporter that the momentum of the three economic recovery is expected to push China's economic recovery and recovery in the middle of 2015 and usher in a long-term and sustainable recovery. The first driving force is that the stock market boom will boost residents' consumption, stimulate enterprises' independent investment, and rapidly stimulate domestic demand, and become a short-term cause for China's economic recovery in 2015. The second power of economic recovery is that the reduction of interest rates and the reduction of real assets will bring about the medium-term cause of investment growth and economic recovery. The third motive force is "deregulation from the supply side, the reform of factor market, the reform of monopoly industries, and the reform of mixed ownership", which will become a long-term driving force for China's steady economic growth.

"Most institutions do not include the stock market as a variable in the economic forecast." He pointed out to reporters that, because of the reversal of the relationship between risks and profits, tens of trillion yuan of funds had gradually withdrawn from real estate and shadow banks and moved to the stock market. China's stock market is expected to usher in a bull market lasting several years, which will surely form a huge wealth utility and quickly activate the real economy.

According to the Huambo New Economic Research Institute, assuming that China's stock market has risen from 2000 to 4000, the value of equity held by enterprises has increased by 10 trillion yuan. The ability of these enterprises to mortgage loans to banks and their ability to invest independently will increase by 5 to 6 trillion yuan. Assuming that the stock market rises from 2000 to 4000, the market value of residents will also increase by 10 trillion yuan, even if the consumption rate of 20% is increased, 2 trillion yuan domestic demand can be increased.