Ye Tan: Will The A Share Market Regain The Trend Of US Stocks?

Will the A share market regain the trend of the US stock market? In the economic transformation stage, the stock market has the possibility of backing the bull with the monetary policy.

The S & P 500 index has gained a record high since March 2009. The US stock market went from fake cow to real bull. At the very beginning, the Federal Reserve cut interest rate and quantitative easing. Finally, it entered the market directly, triggering the market to become better, some technology sectors made great profits, and the US entered the economic growth period under the guidance of innovation.

　　 Chinese stock market We try to provide "ammunition" for the transformation of China's economic structure through reforming concepts and concepts of science and technology. The most striking concept in the second half of 2014 is the reform of state-owned enterprises, resulting in elephant dance.

In February 2014, Sinopec announced that it was the first to introduce social and private capital in the oil sales business and to achieve a mixed operation. The chairman of the board was authorized to determine the terms and conditions of investors, shareholding ratio, stock terms and conditions, and to organize and implement the plan and handle related procedures in the case of social and private capital holding less than 30% of the shareholding ratio of the sales company. Private capital enters the sales sector, and future listing can be expected. Since last year, Sinopec's A shares have been rising slowly.

Stimulated by this stimulus, some brokerages have focused their attention on the high-speed rail, nuclear power and military industries. The high-speed rail as the core of the railway infrastructure industry is the representative of China's going out. It is also the starting point for China's urbanization.

The balance of margin trading in 2014 has been singing all over the way. It reached a trillion yuan mark in December 19th last year, nearly double that of last August 25th. In terms of volume, Margin trading In the total turnover of A shares, the proportion is also higher and higher. According to statistics, in January 2, 2014, the first trading day of last year, the share of margin trading in the two cities accounted for 9.7% of A shares, and after March 28th, the proportion had never been lower than 10%; after October 30th, this figure increased to 15%; after November 20th, it remained stable at around 20%. Financing plays the leading role, putting the biggest market crash in the history of A shares.

Elephants dance may not trample on ants. The most competitive high-tech and Internet SMEs in China are still the focus of the future. The reform from new three boards to gem will ignite the flames of next year's high-tech and innovative SMEs.

But has the fundamentals of most traditional cyclical enterprises improved? These enterprises are still facing enormous pressure to go inventory and high debt, and the production efficiency of many state holding enterprises is still low. But under the impact of the concept of reform, these companies began to use their share prices to solve their own dilemmas, or to replenish capital, or cash in, or to introduce outside shareholders.

　　 Market fluctuation Intense and unstable confidence, margin trading has become the vane of market confidence. After a trillion yuan in the balance of financing, the market collectively went crazy. But on December 23rd and 24 last year, the two cities had a net outflow of financing funds for two consecutive trading days, and the balance of financing has dropped to below trillion yuan. On the evening of 24, the central bank announced that it was not necessary to pay the reserve fund for non interbank deposits, which was equivalent to the "invisible reduction". This made the financial stocks up in the morning and the Shanghai composite index exceeded 3100 points.

However, the concept of good will not continue to strengthen without fundamental stability and cooperation. Whether the stock market can turn from a fake bull to a real bull market depends on whether the reform is successful or not. In the long run, the market has to go back to fundamentals.