Looking Forward To The Return Of The Market Equilibrium, Take Off The Worst Hat.

In the face of less than a month and a half in the market, it surged more than 700 points, while the vast majority of stocks did not rise or fall.

Especially those who have over 7 years of investment experience, the index has risen by 50% in a year. This is not much, because there has been a further rise in stock index.

For them, what is unthinkable is that during this time, the blue chips will rise so fiercely, especially in the financial sector, which is almost empty. This has never happened before.

This also makes

It is extremely unbalanced.

Capital push

Objectively speaking, people should admit that the appearance of such a situation is reasonable.

Since August 1999, the Shanghai stock market has been adjusted since 3478. In the past 5 years, the blue chip stocks basically did not perform well. Even after the senior leaders openly stated that "blue chips have rare investment value", the market is basically indifferent.

Here, the shortage of capital supply is the key to the problem.

Of course, stagflation for a long time is also an impetus for its overfall rebound.

In the first half of 2014, with the advance of the central bank's structural reduction and the reduction of interest rates, the banking sector generally had the trend of being filled after the interest rate was eliminated, indicating that after the improvement of the capital situation, the blue chip stocks were eager.

In November, the central bank announced asymmetric interest rate cuts, which gave the market a clear signal of loosening of the money market and became a catalyst for the rise of blue chips.

As we all know, the real economy is relatively weak. Therefore, it is necessary for the relevant parties to relax their liquidity. At that time, the market funds are more willing to avoid the reality and seek opportunities first in the capital market. Therefore, a wave of capital driven market has risen, and in this process, the large number of capital levers has played a great role.

Since there are enough funds to enter the market, they will naturally choose the varieties with low absolute price and little increase in recent years, and their performance is also acceptable, so that the speculation of large blue chips will become a necessity.

And the squeeze effect of other stock generated directly results in the emergence of the "28 phenomenon".

If investors do not fully anticipate this, and do not adjust their investment ideas in time, then the market will no longer be lost, so that "full warehouse" and even "full warehouse".

Overcorrect

Stock index rose, financial stocks soared, but the vast majority of stocks did not rise or fall.

In some ways, this is a non equilibrium situation.

If we say that this unbalanced situation is to correct the other unbalanced situation in the past, that is, let the blue chips realize the valuation repair, that is reasonable and necessary.

But now it seems that I am actually overcorrecting.

No doubt, various market information tells people that this unbalanced situation has not yet shown signs of coming to the end, and it is clear that large blue chips also have upwards space.

But the problem is, from the rule of market operation, too extreme imbalance can only be temporary, and can not be sustained.

In terms of the current market, from the policy direction, we should leverage the financial sector and promote financial disintermediation, which obviously brings pressure to commercial banks.

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In the field, now we need to accelerate the adjustment of industrial structure and the pformation of growth pattern. We need to vigorously develop modern service industries and strategic emerging industries instead of focusing on what strong cyclical industries, and some of the strong cyclical industries are overcapacity. Now we need to go to capacity.

Moreover, we all admit that the productivity and economic benefits of private enterprises are higher than that of state-owned enterprises. If the central enterprises do not have monopoly protection, their profitability is quite low.

Now, the stock market's appearance is to configure itself to state-owned enterprises and central enterprises as far as possible, which is obviously not reasonable.

Knowing such a big background, it is easy to find that the current stock market hot spots are in fact far from the state's reform policies and objectives. It is more of a short-term speculation factor than a mining industry with long-term investment space.

Further, the distribution of hot spots in the market now completely excludes innovative enterprises, and refuses to give growth companies the space they deserve. This can not be considered as rational.

As for now, the speculation of blue chips is a manifestation of the will of the state and a "market value management" at the national level, which is even more absurd.

Some people say that if the market of large blue chips is supported by the volume of pactions, investors will buy it tomorrow and sell it the day after tomorrow. Then what is the difference between this and the previous small cap stocks?

Since it is hype, sooner or later, there will be a time to stall.

Investors have found that although the stock index is still rising, trading volume has begun to be a little behind, which means that this extreme "28 phenomenon" has been interpreted to the later stage.

Only during this period, because of the unbalanced market structure, the orderly operation of the market and the optimal allocation of assets objectively brought some negative effects, and the losses of the vast investors also reflected some defects of the market itself.

From the perspective of the big development trend, the market will eventually return to equilibrium, because the unbalanced pattern is not conducive to the steady development of the market.

Now this kind of fund is highly concentrated in the financial sector, and is not consistent with the long-term development strategy of the country, so the change is inevitable.

Just because of the particularity of this market, people can not be too optimistic about the process of market equilibrium.

When entering 2015, investors' expectation is that the market can restore equilibrium at an early date.

In any case, the stock market as a resource allocation site, it still has to run according to economic laws.

Because of this expectation, what investors should do now is to choose stocks that are truly in line with the national strategy and have good growth according to their investment preferences. I believe that even if they are stagnant now, they will surely shine in the future.