Interpretation Of The Dual Purpose Of The Government'S Stock Market Boom

In 2015, the gold prospectors in the capital market should have a much better mood than this time last year.

At this time last year, most people experienced a year of idleness. Now we are standing at 50% higher than last year, and no one will doubt that we will conquer 3478 points soon.

So far, I haven't heard much from investors.

People may only consider that point to seriously consider whether they should continue to see more or turn to the short end.

I have been referring to this point in this column. In my view, this point is so important that a large scale callback is very likely to happen here. Even if the index goes through this point far away, it will only bring about a larger pullback.

This reminder does not constitute a trend judgement for future market.

In fact, I will still see more until some kind of collapse happens.

In other words, if there is no collapse, the index will maintain upward momentum until some time in 2017.

I know that this view has nothing to do with it. Many loud voices have expressed optimism about 5000 points, 10000 points and even higher ones.

I just want to emphasize that keeping the index upwards does not mean a high point. On the contrary, many factors can be combined to see that the space on the stock market may be much lower than your expectations.

China's version of the monetary quantitative easing policy is the driving force behind the long-term upward trend.

Whether the government has publicly acknowledged, the core of this policy has been successful in the United States and has been copied in the euro area. Even in Japan, the "annoying" Andouble has done quite well.

China

The authorities need to break through the encirclement of a group of highly academic critics.

They will exaggerate the threat of "super currency" with huge M2 figures. After losing the powerful helper of rising housing prices, they will emphasize the excess capacity, implicit debt and, of course, the stock market bubble.

Now it seems that the determination of the leaders of the government is firm. They need a hot capital market as a hedge. They will push the state-owned enterprises to reduce their shares on a large scale so as to achieve the dual purpose of making the mixed ownership dominant and raising huge social security funds.

Obviously, this policy goal itself constitutes a huge bear factor, coupled with the prospect of developing a multi-level equity financing market and issuing large quantities of new shares.

The possibility of excessive bubbles is not large.

On the contrary, the release of excessive chips at any stage may give investors a false alarm.

The real support for China's long-term economic growth will mainly come from the growth of the private sector, which is due to the withdrawal of the state sector and more importantly to the political trend.

The pattern of power leading the distribution of wealth enables the public sector to be in an advantageous position.

At the same time, the contradiction between different social strata, especially the gap between the bottom and the upper and middle classes, will continue to threaten the stable and healthy development of the economy.

Obviously, this is a long-term topic, which is not enough to affect the market environment of the year. It is worth mentioning that the risk of collapse that I am worried about has been nurtured in this social issue. Because of the sensitivity of this topic, in this column, please understand that I can only focus on it.

In discussing political factors, we can take advantage of changes in the international environment.

I believe people have noticed that the recent sharp decline in oil prices caused by the argument.

Emerging economies and BRICs seem to be splitting up. [1.82%] countries, represented by Russia, will soon feel the squeeze on the new economy.

Europe and the United States have the chance to get away from the complex Middle East, at least not so much trouble, which makes it necessary for Chinese leaders to reassess the benefits of international relations strategy over the past two years.

More importantly, the choice of the right left and right road in China is rather awkward when "the westerly wind is strong and the east wind is getting weaker".

I know that there has never been any obvious hint, but the impression of "United Russia" has really played a certain role in social mobilization.

Now, Putin's forgetting is probably what politicians most want people to do.

In this column in the last week of August last year, I earnestly hoped that our leaders would put forward the "general justice" as the central line of the "Fourth Plenary Session".

Now, in retrospect, I took it for granted.

Economic construction is still the general principle and general line that can not be rid of. It is lucky for investors. The bottom line is very high, but it may not be so lucky. When it comes to economic performance, it is hard to find the solution to the economic problem.