Economic Analysis: The Bull Market Is Gradually Clear.

Stock index futures rose to a new high in the year, and the bond market was not surprising. The author believes that although the stock index continues to bullish from the perspective of residents' asset allocation, blue chip valuation repair, and risk-free interest rate downtrend, the risk of aggregation can lead to a higher than expected market adjustment rate when the stock market fluctuates significantly under the strong wind.

　　 The adjustment of deposit size is limited.

The central bank deposits statistics caliber adjustment, including new deposits included in the deposits, refers to deposits and financial institutions to absorb securities and transaction settlement class deposits, Banking Non deposit deposits, SPV storage, other financial institutions and foreign financial institutions to deposit. From the policy background, on the one hand, in December, interbank funds gradually tightened, and short end interest rates rose significantly. In order to maintain loose funds, the central bank suspended the open market operation for several weeks. On the other hand, the weak economy and the hot capital market in November reduced the interest rate, which meant that the broad monetary policy was real and virtual. In this case, the stock market rose sharply and the real economy did not benefit. This is the result that the central bank did not want to see. Here, in order to ease the financial market liquidity "barrier lake" brought about by interest rate cuts, the central bank adjusts the statistics of deposits to encourage financial institutions to lend.

From the point of view of the policy itself, the central bank's intention to shift from broad money to broad credit is obvious, and by raising the rate of return on assets of commercial banks as a consideration, it will encourage further marketization of liabilities.

Therefore, on the surface, it is conducive to easing the pressure of deposit and loan ratio of banks, and is conducive to credit delivery. The measure is not a one-sided advantage. First of all, the reduction in bank credit is not entirely restricted by the ratio of loan to deposit and capital shortage. It is based on the drop of willingness to lend and the demand for real economy financing. Moreover, many commercial banks actually fail to reach the upper limit of loan to deposit ratio. Therefore, the effect of this measure is uncertain. Secondly, the interest rate of interbank deposits is much higher than that of general deposits. Commercial banks will also appropriately control costs, and there will not be any arbitrage in the preceding table. Even if short-term arbitrage space is allocated, in the long run, interbank deposits will be included in the table, which means that it will eventually be limited by the leverage ratio of capital adequacy ratio, and there is no possibility of unlimited expansion. However, from the fact Finally, the expectation that the original market expected is expected to fail, and the central bank only stipulates that the reserve ratio is "tentatively zero". In the future, there is still the possibility of paying the reserve fund, which has evolved into uncertainty.

　　 Capital side Short term tightening

From the real economy, there are no signs of improvement. On the one hand, the total profit of industrial enterprises in the whole country decreased by 4.2% in November compared with the same period in October, a drop of 2.1 percentage points larger than that in October. In the 1-11 month of this year, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 1.4 percentage points over 1-10 months.

Despite the short term Economics Fundamentals are not the same as the rise of the stock market, but in the long run, the real economy determines profits and profits determine the intrinsic value of stocks. The market is driven by liquidity. Under the economic downturn, industrial enterprises are slowing down, while the central bank has been pumping water to stimulate the economy. Money has flowed from the real economy to the stock market. So for the stock market, economic difference is not necessarily a bad thing. However, we find that the biggest advantage of the current stock market is the decline in risk-free interest rates, thereby driving valuation recovery. But in the long run, the fundamentals of the economy must be the decisive factor in the long-term trend of the stock market.

On the other hand, the peak season of capital demand for Spring Festival, especially in January, is usually the peak value of credit. The demand for liquidity is unlikely to decrease significantly in the short term. Unless the policy is substantially draining, the rate of money interest rate will rise in January.

　　 equity market Weaken leverage

After the breakthrough of the trillions of financing balance, the restriction of funds on the two scale growth is gradually emerging. As of December 24th, the two cities had a net outflow of financing funds for two consecutive trading days, and the financing balance had dropped to below trillion. Shanghai stock financing balance reported 667 billion 220 million yuan. Shenzhen financial balance of 328 billion 550 million yuan. In the two days of 23 and 24 days, the repayment amount of the two cities was 96 billion 205 million yuan and 86 billion 216 million yuan respectively.

In short, in the mad bull market with increasing volatility, valuations have been greatly restored, profits of industrial enterprises have declined and structural easing has been replaced by further easing of overall easing. Therefore, the stock index has gathered a lot of bad profits to be released. Therefore, hedge or preventive measures against financing and leverage failure need to be done.