A Shares Start A Good Start After A Small Adjustment.

In 2015, A shares made a good start, with a slight adjustment after the start of the new year, and the long end of the stock market ended at 3478 points in Shanghai stock market.

Near the 2009 big top, investors how to operate? In January 7th, Xu Shanwu, chief investment adviser of Tianfeng securities, said that the current time point or has entered the end of the short-term index, but the adjustment is only a small episode of the bull market. A shares will bring more surprises in the future.

Netizen: how big is the 3478 pressure?

Xu Shanwu: short term

Larger, phased index market is coming to an end.

The Shanghai Composite Index completed the 3000 point to 3300 point impact process in just seven trading days.

Unlike the previous upturn market (2400 points to 3000 points), the current index has been rising, and the hot spots on the disk have not only been driven by a single financial sector, but the orderly rotation of the weight plates.

The hot spot change has brought a more profound impact on the market.

First of all, as the hot spots start to hype, the money making effect of the market is more prominent than before. At the same time, the mentality of some investors taking profits is increasing.

Secondly, the hot wheels make money start to tap potential varieties.

Although the phenomenon of buyouup shows that funds have not been evacuated from the battlefield, it also shows that the overall market mentality is becoming more cautious, and the larger varieties are beginning to be avoided, and a new round of buying has begun for the varieties that have not yet risen.

The most typical phenomenon is the rebound of the entrepreneurial newspaper in January 6th.

On the whole, personally believe that the current time point has entered the end of the short-term index market.

In addition, the technology overbought pressure and the IPO significantly accelerated. The index is expected to enter the continuous rest stage after hitting 3300 points.

Net friend: there are not many people in the market. How do we understand the current index market?

Although the short-term market risk has begun to increase, it does not mean the end of the medium term market.

The fact that the real economy is sluggish and the stock market is rising is not logical, but careful analysis is reasonable.

First,

For the central bank to reserve control space, we can expect that reducing the financing cost in the future will still be the central task of the central bank.

In November 2014, the central bank has just carried out a round of interest rate cuts. Since then, many stable growth policies have been issued, and the time interval is relatively short. It is estimated that the government will look at the economic data for December 2014, and if it continues to deteriorate, it will not rule out the possibility of reducing interest rates or reducing interest rates again.

It is worth noting that under the background of finance plus leverage, the strong demand for funds in the financial market is hard to fall and can only be solved by increasing the supply of funds by the central bank.

Reflected in the stock market, we can see that the acceleration of the current index market is the result of the interest rate cut.

Second, the change in economic expectations has spawned a bull market in the A share market.

The economic forecast here is not the expectation of economic growth, but the "new normal growth" that we often hear in recent years, that is, the emphasis on economic quality without emphasizing the total economic volume.

Under the background of economic restructuring, this new normal growth has been widely recognized by the market.

With the release of the reform dividend, this expected change is more obvious, thus increasing market confidence.

Therefore, from this perspective, I think that the rise of the stock market is reasonable, which is the fundamental reason for the bull market.

Xu Shanwu: there are two hot spots in the A stock market in 2015.

First of all, the financial sector is still the mainstream hot spot, brokerage and insurance are the first match, and banks are also worthy of attention.

Although interest rates are expected to have a negative impact on bank performance, bank valuations do not depend entirely on performance.

Bank performance continued to grow in the past few years, but the stock price has not been performing well because of the market's concern about the quality of its assets.

The interest rate cut will help reduce the financing cost of enterprises, help reduce the banking business risk and enhance the medium and long-term valuation level.

Therefore, from experience, the performance of bank shares was relatively weak on the day of interest rate cuts, but then there were different levels of rising prices. This will not be an exception, so the adjustment of the financial sector is a good time to bargain.

Second, pursue the policy oriented hot spots.

From the 2014 central economic work conference, we seem to be able to comb out the future policy orientation.

From the perspective of operation, the pformation from "made in China" to "created in China" is worthy of sustained attention in the fields of high-end equipment and railway infrastructure.

From the perspective of government investment, nuclear power, environmental protection, UHV and other fields will become a more deterministic industry.