Blue Chip Pulled Up The Market Almost All Lost, Rational Response To The Market.

Natural person with leverage

Possession scarcity

Reporter: in the current stock market of natural investors, professional institutional investors and general corporate investors in China, how do you evaluate the profits of professional institutions in the past year?

Hu Lifeng: I observe that natural person investors occupy the main force of capital.

In the first 3 years, the proportion of natural person investors in Shanghai stock market is about 80%-82%.

In the second half of 2014, natural investors increased to 85%-90% even as the scale of financing increased.

At present, the size of trillions of financing, about 95%-99% holders are natural investors, almost no professional institutional investors.

In 2014, the "financiers get 2014", but the fund is very low for financial stocks. The proportion of the industry share of the active shareholding is about 22%, the standard is 100%, the amount is only about 50 billion yuan financial stocks, and the professional institutional investors represented by the fund obviously prefer the small cap growth stocks.

Sha: incremental funds, I think the main force does not come from "outside" but from "inside", more likely to pursue high yield funds such as bank financial asset pool into the market, superimposed personal plus leverage funds to drive up the volume and price rise.

Why is it not "outside"? The most direct evidence is that Hong Kong stocks have not risen.

In 2012, the inflow of foreign capital was Hong Kong stock first started and then entered.

Another indicator is that foreign exchange holdings have increased substantially in late 2012 and early 2013, but this has not happened this year.

In the three quarter, most of the institutions were still in growth stocks. Most of the agencies began to increase their allocation to blue chips after the fourth quarter of fast approaching. However, by the time limit, the cost and the position limit, the agencies probably lost the index in the four quarter.

Hu Lifeng: the professional investment institutions that held value investment, long-term investment and steady investment should have more blue chip stocks.

But the actual situation is that ordinary people not only increase blue chip stocks, but also buy 1 trillion yuan from financing to occupy the valuable and scarce blue chip resources.

A shares revive blue chip tackling difficulties

Reporter: what do you think is the most fundamental reason for this bull market?

Hu Lifeng: the most fundamental reason for the bull market is that China's blue chip stocks are very cheap.

At the end of July 2014, the valuation level of blue chip stocks hit the lowest level in China's stock market in 15 years.

From a global stock market perspective, it is not only much lower than us blue chip stocks, but also lower than Hongkong blue chips.

In the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, we launched a comprehensive deepening reform. In July 2014, I identified the market as a "structural bull market of a comprehensive deepening reform". Last year, we judged that the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3200 points at the end of 2014, closing at 3235 at the end of the year, the main force was blue chips, and high valuations were stagnant or even down.

Looking ahead to the 2015, the stock market will revive the blue chips. The Shanghai composite index is expected to have 4500 points. The 4000 point is prudent, and the 5000 point is optimistic.

Even at the 4500 point, the average A of all stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange is about 20 times the total profit calculated in 2014.

In the past, A shares in the Shanghai stock market hit 69 times the average price earnings ratio in October 2007.

By the end of 2014, the Shenzhen motherboard was 25 times, the medium and small board was 40 times, and the gem was 60 times.

Therefore, even at the 4500 point, Shanghai A stock valuation is still not expensive, but also much lower than Shenzhen stock market, basically no bubble.

Sha: the most important reason to promote the current round of market is incremental capital entering the market. Of course, this is also because the central bank this year's more relaxed monetary policy, risk-free interest rate and other factors promoted the incremental capital approach.

Personal judgment is still a better choice for equity assets in 2015 than other assets. However, we believe that the rapid growth in December last year cannot be repeated, but the high point is hard to predict.

The reason is very simple, increments will not continue to enter high-speed continuously, this year more likely to see incremental slowdown, and eventually become a game between stocks.

From the point of view of the market leader, the retail investors in China's stock market are still the big ones, but in the last few years, their activity declined because of the low market.

As the market gets warmer and the margin business increases, we believe its influence on the market can not be underestimated.

Changing the market

Reporter: what kind of role do you think the organization will play in the future market?

Sha: I think the incremental funding of the organization is limited, so the impact on the market may be more style switching.

When the style changes, if the whereabouts of financing and switching direction coincide, it will significantly promote this rise.

The main reason for the decline in the past two months is the withdrawal of a small part of stock funds from the main board to the motherboard. In the future, such a situation will gradually improve in 2015, but the risk still depends on the scale of the incremental capital.

We emphasize that when the incremental capital effect decreases, growth stocks still have investment opportunities.

Hu Lifeng: small and medium sized companies play an important role in promoting economic pformation and innovation and development. But what I hope is based on regulating the pformation and innovation of the real meaning of corporate governance, rather than the concept of nothingness, not hype.

In the future, small and medium sized plates should reduce the current high valuation. The main way is to show real high growth performance, and to alleviate the overvalued pressure through a substantial increase in performance.

It needs to be pointed out that the rule of law ruled by the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee will definitely promote the rule of law in the stock market, which will exert great pressure on many companies who play the concept and hype.