China'S Foreign Trade Growth Has Not Been "Up To Standard" For Three Consecutive Years, And Foreign Trade Needs New Thinking.

The total value of China's imports and exports in 2014 increased by 2.3% compared with the previous year, and the gap between China's import and export market is 7.5%.

But is it worth worrying about? How should we view the sharp drop in the growth rate of foreign trade?

First of all, the slowdown is not surprising.

At the time, China set a target of 7.5% of foreign trade based on the judgement of the economic situation in 2014, but now it seems that the world economic recovery is not as fast as people expected.

Although the US economy has warmed up, it will take some time to pmit to the foreign trade field. Europe, Japan and Brazil, Russia and other emerging economies have difficulties and some even go into recession.

Under such circumstances, it is not realistic to expect China's foreign trade performance to be eye-catching.

At the same time, the low price advantage of China's foreign trade is disappearing, and the cost of labor and financing is rising. Many labor-intensive industries begin to pfer to Southeast Asia and other regions, and the new export industrial cluster is still in the formative stage.

It is inevitable that exports will suffer if the "green leaves are not connected".

In 2014, there was also a sharp decline in prices of commodities such as oil.

For such goods, although China's imports are growing, the import value calculated by US dollar will shrink relatively, and the demand for domestic investment and consumption will weaken. The growth rate of import value will also be dragged down.

Secondly, speed does not mean all. It depends on trends and changes.

Zheng Yuesheng, spokesman for the General Administration of customs, said: "the growth rate of China's trade has moved from the fast growing stage to the medium and high speed growth range."

This is consistent with the general trend of China's new normal economy.

Just as we need to say goodbye to "GDP (GDP) worship", for foreign trade.

"We must get rid of the" speed complex "too.

Speed is not the most important thing. The key is to see whether foreign trade is on the track of sound development.

In addition to speed, we must look at the scale and look at the highlights.

After more than a decade of rapid growth, China's exports account for about 12% of the global export market share, while imports are about 10%, and the total value of imports and exports is US $4 trillion and 300 billion.

Such a huge base, as long as the sustained high growth, the amount of increase has been very impressive enough to lead the world.

Looking closely at the figures, we will find that there are still many bright spots in China's foreign trade last year: the rising proportion of bilateral trade in emerging markets shows that trading partners are more diversified; the increase in the proportion of general trade and service trade indicates that China is no longer dependent on low-end processing trade as it used to be; the increase in the import and export value of private enterprises means that there are more endogenous forces in the foreign trade sector; the export of high-end products such as machinery and electricity and the import of high-end consumer goods are also increasing, reflecting the effectiveness of China's economic upgrading and efficiency.

These changes should not be buried due to lower speed.

Thirdly, we should have a broader vision to observe foreign trade.

The important goal of China's comprehensive deepening reform is to pform the growth pattern from the previous export and investment drive to domestic demand and innovation drive.

Statistics show that the share of foreign trade in gross domestic product is declining year after year.

With the pformation and upgrading of China's economy, China has not relied heavily on foreign trade to boost growth as it did more than a decade ago.

In fact, since 2012, the growth rate of foreign trade has been lagging behind GDP growth.

Many experts interviewed believe that China's foreign trade needs not speed up now, but "from big to strong".

"Made in China" needs to be pformed from the previous purely low-cost advantages into comprehensive advantages such as strong capital, skilled workers, logistics and infrastructure, complete industrial chain, and global layout.

More and more Chinese enterprises have begun to adjust themselves to adapt to the new normal of foreign trade and show new openness.

This includes not only the use of new technologies and new products to open up overseas markets, but also the upgrading of the value chain, including the construction of production and R & D bases in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe, and the integration of industrial chains on a global scale.

In recent years, a number of powerful enterprises in China, such as Lenovo, HUAWEI, Sany and so on, have been making frequent efforts to deepen overseas through cross-border mergers and acquisitions, greenbelt investment and so on, so that capital, projects, brands and technologies "go out", not only to promote domestic exports, but also become a symbol of China's economic maturity.

Last,

The future is still full of sunshine.

Looking forward to 2015, Kay said in a macro analysis report that although the global economy is still fragile, in view of many key markets in China, such as the recovery of the United States, "the prospects for China's exports this year will be brighter."

What's more,

The open economic strategy being implemented will add lasting momentum to China's foreign trade development and pformation.

The strategy of "one belt and one road" advocated by China is related to 4 billion 400 million people and more than 60 countries. In the future, it will become a great platform for deepening trade, interests integration and growth linkage between China and the newly emerging countries.

The effective establishment of mechanisms such as the Asian infrastructure investment bank and the Silk Road Fund has laid a solid foundation for substantive cooperation.

In addition, at the end of last year, China, South Korea and China Australia FTA concluded substantive negotiations, and a FTA network comprising more than 20 economies was initially formed.

In the future, China's export enterprises and multinational corporations will face more and bigger business opportunities.

At the same time, on the basis of the first trial of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the Chinese government decided in December last year to set up three free trade zones in Guangdong, Tianjin and Fujian.

It is foreseeable that the advanced experience accumulated by these FTA in various links such as customs clearance, insurance, warehousing, tax rebate and so on will be extended to the whole country in the future, which will surely enhance China's overall trade facilitation level and business environment.

On the import potential, as Asian market expert Thomas Haag said, by 2020, China's middle-income group is expected to reach 600 million, and more farmers will move into cities.

People's demand for high-quality products such as pension, health care and education will increase day by day, and foreign manufacturers will only be more busy.

Forbes magazine also predicted that "China's super consumers" will change the face of global business with strong purchasing power.

In the new era of globalization, the two digit growth of China's foreign trade "myth" has come to an end, but the new round of opening up will not stop.

China's response to the new normal with new thinking and building a more balanced, inclusive and sustainable open economic system will not only benefit itself but also release more dividends and benefit the global trading partners.