Greater Pressure On Cotton Import And Export Faces Major Crisis

Relevant statistics show that in November 2014, the added value of textile industry increased by 7.5% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over that of October.

From 1 to November in 2014, the added value of textile industry has maintained a low level oscillation since the beginning of the year. However, from the trend of industrial value added in the past 3 months, there is a trend of recovery and rebound.

At present, the domestic demand growth in the cotton market has been restored.

Relevant statistics show that in September last year, the retail sales of clothing and needle textiles in Enterprises above designated size were 18 billion 980 million yuan, up 3.59% from the same period last year, a slight increase compared with the 1.5% growth in the same period last year. Last year, 1 to September, enterprises above Designated Size (unit) clothing,

The total retail sales of commodities were 167 billion 980 million yuan, an increase of 3.3% over the same period last year, representing a slight increase of 0.16 percentage points over the same period last year.

China cotton information network survey data show that as of the end of December last year, the textile enterprises inventory of cotton was 596 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 95 thousand and 700 tons from last month.

However, it should be noted that the increase in industrial inventories is mainly due to the increase of Xinjiang cotton by some textile enterprises in order to obtain more cotton quotas.

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In addition, the import quota of cotton in 2014 will be used up at the end of February this year, and the textile enterprises will also increase the purchasing power of imported cotton.

Looking at the historical data, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises has been low in 2014, which shows that the consumption of downstream cotton is not optimistic.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, China exported in November 2014.

About $24 billion 345 million, down 0.47% from the same period last year, a 17.08 percentage point increase from the same period last year, a decrease of 8.27% in the ring ratio, and a 9.81 percentage point increase over the same period last year.

From 1 to November 2014, China's textile and apparel exports totaled US $272 billion 817 million, an increase of US $14 billion 743 million over the same period last year, an increase of 5.71% over the same period last year, an increase of 6.06 percentage points over the same period last year.

The export pressure of textiles is still large.

This year, China has adjusted the import and export tariffs of some commodities, and has continued to implement a sliding tax on certain quantities of cotton imported from the tariff quota.

The information is quite different from the principle of non issuance of quotas in 2015.

The adjustment of import policy actually loosened the import threshold of textile enterprises without tariff import quota. It is expected that cotton will fall to a certain extent in the future or arouse the enthusiasm of domestic textile enterprises.

To sum up, I believe that the domestic cotton prices will continue to market in the late stage, and the policy impact will gradually weaken.

But in the context of low speed textile industry, cotton prices are expected to continue to be weak.

However, considering the annual overall supply and demand pattern in a favorable direction, medium and long term cotton prices are expected to rebound.

As for the extent of the rise, constrained by the weakness of textile consumption and the high inventory of cotton in China, it is hard to predict big market.

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