Strategic Look At The Future Trend Of Multi A Share Market

First of all, compared with 2013 and 2014 in 2015, we predict that the main contradiction of the 2015 fundamentals will be switched from the total consideration to the price level, showing the formal opening of the long period deleveraging at the physical level.

The starting point of this time occurred in the second half of 2014, and there are two key keys to switch the total price and price mode of thinking switch: first, the key to structural improvement.

Before June 2014, the interest rate market rectification and off balance sheet business liquidation were highly distorted before 2014 and overcorrected after 2014.

Second, the key to policy easing.

From 2011 to 2012, the background of policy easing was to hedge against monetary tightening since 2009 to prevent economic hardship. The decline in capital cost was a by-product. After 2014, the focus of policy adjustment was to reduce the financing cost of the real economy and reduce the burden on enterprises, and economic restructuring was the main purpose.

Secondly, in the process of entity deleveraging, whether the experience of the United States or Japan or China's previous experience from 1999 to 2001 indicates that the government is going to go in the entity.

The existence of hedging and leverage is crucial to the trend of capital market.

Entity leveraged government plus leverage, especially the loose margin of monetary level, corresponds to the strengthening of capital market.

Compared with the US, Japan and other countries, the Chinese government's hedge plus leverage space is obviously larger.

Historical experience also shows that as long as policy is maintained and leverage is hedged, the market will have further strength.

Third, since 2009, the reasons for the continuous rise of risk premium in the whole market include both structural problems and tightening of aggregate level policies.

Since 2012, monetary and fiscal policies have been turning to steady growth while stabilizing market expectations. The risk premium level of the whole market has started to stop. The aggregate level has opened up the chains of upward pressure on the risk premium. After 2013, in March 25, 2013, the CBRC launched the No. 8 document and the 9 major documents jointly issued by the five ministries and commissions in May 16, 2014, respectively, in the non-standard and inter industry business, and rectified the interest rate market, which also opened the door of the oppression risk premium from the structural level.

Accordingly, Soochow securities judged the whole market risk in 2015.

The fluctuation center track is expected to bid farewell to the "4" era and enter the "3" era, and then support the market from the valuation level.

Fourth,

The era of entity deleveraging means that there is still room for further risk-free interest rates.

The short-term impact on market is mainly the start of inventory cycle and the fluctuation of risk premium.

The logic behind the rise in July 2014 is mainly due to the support of fundamental stock cycle and the resonance of investor's risk preference, which is similar to that of December 2012 to February 2013.

But unlike that one, the start of this short cycle is also a new long term start.

The main logic is that the risk premium eliminates the dual constraints of total and structural constraints. Therefore, the fluctuation range of previous risk premium has lost historical guidance to the market position judgment, which means that the judgment of the top of the market needs to be treated with a more positive view.