The Gloomy Global Economy Has Just Begun.

Last week, the Swiss central bank stopped the currency and the euro on the same day. The Central Bank of India announced a 25 basis point cut in interest rates. Peru's central bank announced a 25 point cut in interest rates, and the Egyptian central bank also announced a 50 point cut in interest rates.

The Central Bank of Turkey announced on Tuesday that it lowered the benchmark repo rate to 7.75%, and overnight lending rates and overnight lending rates remained unchanged at 11.25% and 7.5%, becoming the latest member of the global central bank's "interest rate cut". Turkey's economic growth slowed to a two-year low of 1.7% in the three quarter of last year.

However, since then, Turkey's minister of industry, Isik, said the rate cut did not meet expectations, and hoped that the central bank would take a bold cut in interest rates. "We hope that interest rates can be as low as possible to the lowest level, hoping that real interest rates will be reduced to zero. With the decline of inflation, interest rates should be cut down in parallel.

The Danish Central Bank also lowered its deposit rate from -0.05% to -0.2% on Monday and reduced its lending rate from 0.2% to 0.05%. But Denmark's negative interest rate cut has only a flash in the pan. After the Swiss policy of abandoning the three year old Swiss franc against the euro ceiling last Thursday, Denmark's policy will be heated up by sniping.

Analysts believe that the Swiss central bank, like exploding a dam and flooding the capital, will soon bring pressure on other central banks such as Hungary and Poland. Poland's Swiss Franc dropped 21% immediately after the announcement.

However, after the action of the Swiss central bank, the market was still shaken, and the European Central Bank's interest rate is near. According to a survey released by Bloomberg on Monday (January 19th), 93% of the surveyed economists believe that the ECB President Delagi will announce a bond purchase plan of at least 550 billion euros.

Market speculation that the European Central Bank's large scale asset purchases at least 500 billion euros, the most likely to reach 15000 billion euros. The purchase of debt will also set restrictive conditions, including the purchase of treasury bonds, the largest proportion of the purchase of a single national bond market, and the full responsibility of the European central bank or the euro system as a whole.

Ifo, the German think-tank, told CNBC on Monday that he expects the European Central Bank quantitative easing (QE) to trigger deep market volatility.

As the central banks around the world compete for lenient, more central banks in emerging market countries may adjust monetary policy.

Goldman Sachs Gao Hua released a report in January 20th that it is in the near future. policy China's four quarter GDP and real economic data in December were slightly better than expected. In the first quarter, the growth rate will continue to face downward pressure. Goldman Sachs is still expecting more easing policies in the coming months.

Nomura also reported in the report that in order to achieve the GDP growth target of 7%, the Chinese government will continue to relax its policy and expects to cut interest rates once again in the two quarter and reduce the deposit rate by 50 basis points in each quarter of this year.

Although all countries have specific circumstances, they can make many central banks of the world maintain a uniform and relaxed direction. There are two common reasons. Economics The overall kinetic energy is insufficient and the growth prospects are weakening. Two, many countries around the world face huge Deflation Risks after the oil price slump.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released in the January 20th world economic outlook report that global growth will benefit from the fall in oil prices, but it is expected that the effect of oil price decline on global growth will not be as bad as negative factors. These factors include many advanced and emerging market In the economy, the weakening adjustment of medium-term growth expectations led to weak investment.

IMF reduced the global growth rate in 2015-2016 years to 3.5% and 3.7% respectively, down 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in the October 2014 report. The adjustment was made because of a reassessment of the economic outlook of China, Russia, the euro area and Japan, and the economic activity of some major oil exporting countries weakened due to the sharp decline in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy with a growth forecast.