RMB To Us Dollar Spot Exchange Rate Innovation Low

The major central banks of the world have implemented loose policies successively, which has doubled the devaluation pressure of the RMB.

At the same time, the central bank lowered its central parity price during the day, which is also known as one of the factors contributing to the devaluation of the renminbi.

The RMB dollar exchange rate continued to depreciate.

Following the 23 day RMB spot exchange rate, it fell 222 basis points, hitting a closing low of nearly seven months. The intermediate price also dropped to a half month low. On the 26 day, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1384, devalued 42 basis points.

At the same time, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.2542, and continued to depreciate by 254 basis points, a new low in June 2014.

In fact, the new version launched by the European Central Bank.

(QE) after the policy, the devaluation pressure on the RMB exchange rate further increased, and the two trading days plummeted by about 450 basis points, equivalent to 75% of the decline in the whole month (down 590 basis points) last month.

Insiders said that the major central banks of the world have implemented loose policies successively, which has doubled the devaluation pressure of the RMB.

At the same time, the central bank lowered its central parity price during the day, which is also known as one of the factors contributing to the devaluation of the renminbi.

Obvious exchange rate

In fact, it started last year.

Judging from the trend of RMB last year, the RMB exchange rate basically showed a steady appreciation trend from the beginning of January to the beginning of February. However, from the beginning of February to the beginning of June, the exchange rate of RMB changed from rise to decline, and the trend of appreciation began from June to mid June.

After the middle of November, a significant depreciation began.

And since the central bank cut interest rates last year, the sharp depreciation of the spot exchange rate has intensified.

The rate cut was less than a month. On the 5 consecutive trading days of December 18th, 19, 22, 23, and 24, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar continued to decline, from 6.1137 in December 17th to 6.1247 on 24, with a devaluation of more than 2%. This is the first time that the RMB exchange rate has obviously depreciated since the reform in 2005.

Judging from this year's situation, although the possibility of a significant appreciation and depreciation of the RMB is less likely, analysts generally believe that the RMB exchange rate will maintain or even exacerbate the two-way fluctuation in 2015. The possibility of a slight depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is still great.

Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, pointed out that, given the slowdown of China's economic growth in the first quarter, the risk of RMB weakening is accumulating.

The risk of depreciation of the renminbi will rise in the first half of the year as a result of the economic slowdown and the sharp narrowing of the trade surplus caused by the lunar new year.

Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, also predicts that the value of the RMB against the US dollar will depreciate slightly this year, reaching about 6.35 by the end of the year, or down to about 6.4 in 2016.