PTA: Preterm Maintenance Oscillation Pattern

According to the current PX price, the PTA cost price is slightly higher than the PTA spot price, and the PTA production is slightly deficient.

But in order to compete for market share, enterprises will actively produce.

According to the statistics of China chemical fiber information network, the current PTA capacity is 43 million 480 thousand tons and the operating rate is 73.2%.

The monthly output is 2 million 650 thousand tons, and the conversion of polyester production capacity is 44 million 180 thousand tons and the operating rate is 76.7%. The monthly PTA demand is 2 million 400 thousand tons.

Therefore, dynamic PTA supply presents an excess state.

On the other hand, in the middle of last 1 months, several sets of devices which were forced to stop and repair due to failures have been restarted recently. With the gradual increase of the load of these sets of equipment, the supply pressure of PTA will continue to rise.

In addition, at present, the PTA futures are more than 250 yuan / ton, and the buying and selling operations of spot futures are under pressure.

The Spring Festival is drawing near.

Activities will gradually shrink, the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is now reduced to 55%, and the latter will continue to decline until the 15th day of the first month of the Chinese lunar calendar.

In addition, before the Spring Festival, weaving enterprises in the lower reaches of China will normally be stocked appropriately, and there are some speculative demand. But there are more than 10 to 15 days of downstream stocking, which means that the stocking ahead of the Spring Festival is ahead of schedule, and the bottom of the crude oil is still unclear, and speculative demand is also worrying.

Demand for continued replenishment is also weakening.

The price of PTA has dropped to a historical low. The price of polyester polyester has been at a low level. Whether it is rigid demand or speculative demand, the cost has obviously declined. In the long run, PTA price is close to the bottom, and gradually has the value of doing more.

After the first month of fifteen, migrant workers will return to the city gradually. The weaving rate of PTA weaving enterprises will gradually pick up, the actual demand of industrial chain terminals will increase, the load of polyester plant is expected to pick up gradually, and the demand for PTA will also rise.

In particular, 4 and May will usher in the peak season of the first half of the year. Enterprises or in March will be properly stocked, especially when the market is stable.

PTA industry chain will gradually improve.

To sum up, at present, the pressure of PTA overcapacity is not decreasing, and with the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal consumption is shrinking, the actual demand is insufficient, and the bottom of the crude oil has not yet been verified. Therefore, even if PTA rebounded, it should not be over optimistic.

But in the long run, the price of PTA and polyester has gone down in history, so the resistance of PTA prices is also increasing.

After March, as demand becomes warmer and the trend of crude oil becomes clearer, more opportunities for PTA futures will emerge.