Vigilance: Capital Outflow Pressure Can Not Be Ignored

With the establishment of RMB devaluation and two-way fluctuation expectations, the deficit of capital and financial items, especially financial items, began to manifest.

Behind this is the acceleration of capital outflow and the exclusion of international hot money.

The strong shock of capital markets reflects investor concerns.

In the dilemma of supplementing the basic monetary gap and the devaluation of currency devaluation funds, the central bank's monetary policy decision is also in a dilemma.

according to

The latest data released on the 3 day, the four quarter of 2014, China's current account surplus of 375 billion 100 million yuan (about 61 billion 100 million U.S. dollars), capital and financial items (including net errors and omissions, the same below) deficit of 559 billion 500 million yuan (about 91 billion 200 million U.S. dollars).

Among them, the adverse balance of capital and financial items exceeded the deficit of 46 billion 800 million US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2008 in the global financial crisis, reaching a new high since 1998.

Wen Bin, principal researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with reporters, three quarters of capital in the two quarter, the three quarter and the four quarter of 2014.

The deficit also set a record. In the two quarter and the three quarter of 2012, capital and financial projects had been running deficits for two consecutive quarters.

He judged that the pattern of double surplus will be changed and replaced by the new normal of "current account surplus, capital and financial project deficit".

Wen Bin said, on the one hand, the enterprise external

More, China is moving towards net capital exporting countries, and with the further opening of capital account, there will be more capital outflows. On the other hand, under the joint action of the Fed's rate hike expectations and the central bank's interest rate cut expectations, some of the international hot money may not be excluded.

The above data can be corroborated by the data of foreign exchange settlement by commercial banks.

According to the data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange, the bank posted a surplus of US $159 billion 200 million in the first quarter, down to US $29 billion in the two quarter, and a deficit of US $16 billion in the three quarter and a US $46 billion 500 million in the four quarter.

"Theoretically speaking, the scale of China's foreign trade surplus is not small, but the foreign currency deposits in the mainland is a net decrease, which means that many enterprises and individuals have not chosen to settle their foreign exchange after obtaining foreign exchange, and the funds have been flowing through various channels."

Wen Bin said.

If China expedite capital output is the positive factor behind the deficit, then the hot money escaping is the negative information of its release.

Capital flows monitoring agency EPFR data showed that as of January 28th, the fund continued to flow out of China's stock ETF, which came out about $779 million a week and outflows $1 billion 766 million in the previous week.

In the week, funds continued to flow out of China's bond market. When the week was about $94 million, the net outflow was $42 million last week.