Supply Pressure To Push Cotton Prices To Maintain Concussion

Review of market situation in January and January

In January 2015, the internal market trend was stronger than the external market, while the domestic market maintained a concussion, while the US disk hit a new low.

Domestic spot is also relatively stable, showing a slow downward trend overall, while the international spot market has a big decline.

Meanwhile, the price of polyester, viscose and viscose continued to decline, and the price difference between cotton and cotton increased again.

In January, the stability of the internal market was mainly due to the continuous downward price and the general loss of domestic processing plants. Therefore, there was a strong price intention, plus the Corps as the main body of the market, and there has been no price cut since October.

In addition, cotton arrivals continued to decrease in recent months, the lowest level in the same period in recent years.

Therefore, the seller's selling price and imported cotton have a certain support for domestic cotton prices.

The current global cotton pattern: China is the world's largest consumer, importer and second largest cotton producer; the United States is the third largest cotton producing country and the largest exporter in the world; India is the world's largest producer, the second largest exporter and the second largest consumer.

Therefore, the situation of China, the United States and India has a significant impact on the global cotton price, and the three countries also influence each other and restrict each other.

This year, the major changes and situations of these three countries are: 1. China withdrew from storage, the competitiveness of domestic cotton is not enough, the price has dropped sharply, but it has caused a considerable price of processing plants; 2. India's export increase in recent years is mainly for the Chinese market, with China's tightening of quotas, and the reduction of cotton prices in India through the purchase and storage of goods, the export of India is blocked, and 3. of the US cotton production is increased. However, in the environment of the Chinese regiment's very high price and the purchase and storage of India, the United States cotton has been profitable and exported at a low price.

Judging from the current situation, China is very competitive.

The purchase and storage temporarily pushed the supply pressure back, while Mei cotton took the opportunity to speed up the export process, and has now completed a 90% export target.

But it also means that market share has been seized by the United States, and China and India will face a game.

According to statistics, as of January 28th, Xinjiang has processed 4 million 240 thousand tons of new cotton in 2014/15, of which 2 million 560 thousand tons were processed locally, and 1 million 675 thousand tons were processed by the Corps.

There are 4 million 730 thousand tons of public inspection, including 3 million 978 thousand tons of public inspection in Xinjiang and 750 thousand tons of public inspection in the mainland.

At present, Xinjiang has not cut production this year, and its output is expected to reach 4 million 500 thousand tons.

However, due to the continuous downward price, the cotton farmers in the mainland are reluctant to sell, and the processing plants are also very cautious. Therefore, the acquisition process is very slow. In previous years, the centralized selling period did not appear, and the acquisition was levelled off. It is expected that there will be a wave of selling small peaks before and after the Spring Festival.

It is estimated that the total output will be around 6 million 500 thousand tons.