Pressure On Short-Term Devaluation Of RMB

China's central bank dropped sharply on Thursday against the US dollar as the central bank lowered its central parity price. Today, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar is 6.1366 yuan, and the middle price of the day is 6.1318 yuan.

The yuan opened 6.2560 yuan against the US dollar and closed at 6.2477 yuan on the previous day. The offshore RMB against the US dollar was 6.2592 yuan, 30 points lower than the shore price.

BBVA Asia chief economist Xia Le said in an interview that the central bank's reduction in the near term may bring devaluation pressure to the RMB. He also said that in the medium to long term, after easing monetary policy, the economy will have a certain degree of stability, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise in the second half of the year.

Xia Le pointed out that, in general, the depreciation rate of the RMB is limited this year, and the estimate for the end of the year will fall to about 6.3 yuan. The renminbi may repeat the situation in 2012, when there were two interest rates cut in the middle of the year, and the Renminbi remained weak, but with the stabilization of the economy, the yuan subsequently strengthened.

Zhang Zhiqing, a senior trader at China Merchants Bank's financial market, believes that over the past week, the domestic market has experienced several successive approximations but not touched the experience of the down limit. It has begun to adapt to the new mode of RMB exchange rate fluctuation, that is, the middle price follows the US dollar index. The transaction price will not touch the 2% limit plate.

Zhang Zhiqing said that lowering the margin would narrow the spread and reduce the RMB. Interest margin Attractiveness; but with the easing of monetary policy, economic data have been gradually transferred to raise the middle price, thereby enhancing the RMB exchange rate.

Zhang Zhiqing said that the probability of widening the wave amplitude is not large this year. The next stage may increase the elasticity of the intermediate price. The premise of expanding the intermediate price elasticity is that the appreciation or depreciation is not very strong, especially the expectation of depreciation.

Analysts Zuo Junyi and others said that the renminbi is expected to depreciate, so the rate of interest rate reduction is expected to be closed. The central bank may buffer the pressure of outflow by maintaining the spread between the assets of the RMB and the US dollar.

The report also shows that the central bank may moderate. depreciation The moderate depreciation of the RMB in the offshore renminbi to 6.15/6.16 will reduce the market's expectation of the continued depreciation of the RMB.

On Wednesday, when the central bank lowered its standard, it said: "this is a response to the previous PMI breaking below 50, which is consistent with the depreciation of the Chr (34) driven by our call yesterday. Chr (34) will reduce the cost of financial institutions, and the long term funds released will help stabilize the financial institutions' expectations and guide the reduction of the cost of financing. This also means that China's response to loosely global competition means that the RMB exchange rate will also fall into a devaluation channel, otherwise, it will only have impulse effect and will not help stabilize China's economy.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, reported on Wednesday that the future is expected. rrr There will be a reduction of 1-2 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points each time, which is more likely to happen in the first half. The direct and direct reason for this reduction is the increase in capital outflow and the decrease in foreign exchange reserves under the pressure of RMB devaluation.

The report believes that in the second half of this year, with the steady growth policy effect further showing, the real estate market stabilized and China's economy improving, the pressure of capital outflow and RMB depreciation has eased, and the pressure on reserve ratio reduction has also eased.

The Central Bank of China announced on Wednesday that the deposit reserve ratio of the general financial institutions should be 0.5 percentage points, the first time in nearly three years that it has been fully standardized. It is expected that this will release more than 600 billion yuan of total capital and reduce the cost of market capital to ease the downward pressure on China's economy.

The Central Bank of China implemented the two directional drop in 2014. Last time, the overall reserve ratio was adjusted. In May 2012, the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions was reduced by 0.5 percentage points.

Since the beginning of this year, more than ten central banks have launched easing monetary policy measures, and the Central Bank of China has joined them. The collapse of commodity prices gave the central bank room to promote economic growth.