Foreign Investment Bank Betting China Loosening RMB Exchange Rate Volatility

At present, the central bank [micro-blog] allows the RMB to fluctuate around the middle price by 2%, but the RMB has repeatedly approached the limit recently, even touched down on Monday.

"If the pressure is not reduced, the RMB volatility will expand to 3% within a few weeks." Heng Koon How, a credit analyst at Credit Suisse, said in an interview with Bloomberg news. Dahua bank also holds similar views. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia believes that the time of expansion is in the first half of this year.

"There are many ways to ease monetary policy, like last weekend's rate cut, and allowing the depreciation of the renminbi is also a way." Heng said to Bloomberg, "expanding the volatility of the yuan can make money more freely traded, and it is also about the economy and financial environment A more effective response to change.

China's last relaxation exchange rate The volatility is likely to further devalue the renminbi in March 2014 by widening the range of fluctuation, which is conducive to stimulating exports, but at the same time will increase the risk of capital outflow and reduce the effect of interest rate cuts.

In February 28th, the central bank cut interest rates second times in three months, JP Morgan, chief economist of China. Zhu Haibin It is estimated that if the economic growth is not up to expectations in the coming months, the downward pressure on inflation will continue to strengthen, and interest rates may be further lowered by 25 basis points.

According to the China foreign exchange trading center, on Monday, the yuan fell 0.05% to 6.2730, a discount of 1.98% over the middle price.

Related links:

According to statistics released by the Brazil textile and Garment Industry Association (ABIT), the turnover of Brazil's industry in the year of (2014) was US $55 billion 400 million, a decrease of 4.81% compared with 2013, accounting for 5.7% of the manufacturing turnover of Brazil in 2014, with an investment of 1 billion 100 million US dollars, which is similar to that of 2013.

The number of Brazil textile related companies is about 33 thousand. The number of employees directly or indirectly employed by such companies is about 9 million 600 thousand, of which 75% of women are women. The number of employees in Brazil's manufacturing industry is only second of that of the food and beverage industry.

In 2014, the annual output of garments, sheets and towels in Brazil amounted to 6 billion.

In terms of foreign trade, the total imports of Brazil's textile and garment industry in 2014 amounted to $7 billion 80 million 90 thousand, up 4.79% from 2013, and the total export volume was $1 billion 176 million 760 thousand, which was 6.65% lower than that in 2013. The clothing industry in 2014 imported the highest amount of textile products in Brazil, amounting to US $2 billion 834 million 560 thousand, up 8.01% compared to 2013, and the fabric imports at 1 billion 676 million 210 thousand US dollars, the growth rate was 8.76% compared with that in 2013. The import value of textile fibers was US $291 million 920 thousand, which was 12.08% higher than that in 2013, while the yarn imports amount to US $918 million 90 thousand, up 7.68% over 2013. China is the largest supplier of textiles in Brazil in 2014, amounting to 3 billion 812 million 150 thousand dollars, India ranked 541 million 20 thousand dollars, Indonesia ranked third in 358 million 810 thousand dollars, and Taiwan ranked fifth in 198 million 550 thousand US dollars.

To distinguish between 26 states and 1 special administrative regions in Brazil, St. Lena answers the highest amount of textile imports in Brazil, Santa Catarina, which reaches 2 billion 372 million 60 thousand dollars, and St Paul takes 2 billion 172 million 30 thousand dollars, and the Espirito Santos ranks third in 620 million 280 thousand dollars in Brazil.

On the export side, Argentina was the largest buyer of textiles in Brazil last year, amounting to 273 million 800 thousand US dollars. The United States took 136 million 420 thousand dollars, and Paraguay and Uruguay ranked third and four respectively for 103 million 820 thousand US dollars and 85 million 270 thousand dollars. St Paul was the highest state of textile export in Brazil last year, amounting to 379 million 920 thousand US dollars, and St. Dhaka answered Lena for 169 million 790 thousand dollars, and the Rio Grande do Sul state ranked third in 146 million 210 thousand dollars.

Last year, the amount of imported textile machinery in Brazil amounted to US $561 million 370 thousand, which was 17.7% lower than that in 2013. The import volume of sewing machine (H.S.Code 8452) was the highest, amounting to US $142 million 130 thousand, while washing machine (H.S.Code8450) imports amounted to US $62 million 520 thousand, up 13.02% from 2013.