The Economy Is Low But Not Too Broad.

The author generalizes the words "economy is not low, but finance is broad and not loose", and thinks that this economic and financial environment is very beneficial to the stock market. Since last year, we have been crying out for bull market. This year, we are likely to exclaim the bull market is extended. The meaning of "economy is low but not obsessed" is that economic growth is declining and innovation is low.

Last year, it fell below 8%, reaching 7.4%, and this year's target is only about 7%. But the market is not panic, and the NDRC answers better than expected. This is because, in the past few years, China has relied on large-scale investment in real estate, large-scale railways, highways, airports and other large scale export surplus. economic growth The development mode has become the past, and the new economy relying on innovation, technology, efficiency and service is changing. The decline in economic growth is normal.

In the course of the decline, the employment situation of the whole society is stable, the tax revenue is stable, and the number of the bankrupt entities and the newly registered enterprises is basically balanced. The real estate market will not collapse, but prices will be stable. The empty city and ghost town reported by the mass media proved to be only a few structural cities, and some ghost towns slowly revived, because the old city area has a transitional time to the new urban area.

Today, interest rates are cut. Drop accuracy With the coming of the time, the real estate market has stabilized. The most important leading indicator in the economy, HSBC and the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing managers' index PMI of the National Bureau of statistics, has stabilized and the purchasing managers' index of service industry has stabilized above 50. This economic environment tells the vast majority of investors, do not worry, investing in the stock market, the economy will no longer be bad.

The meaning of "finance is broad and not loose" means that monetary policy and credit policy should satisfy the needs of financial institutions and the real economy's demand for capital as much as possible, but this kind of satisfaction is not a big flood, but a directional, precise and moderate one. On the one hand, when interest rates are cut and the rates are reduced, Money supply We must maintain stability, which is a preventive measure to prevent prices and house prices from rebounding. Experience.

Every time the Central Bank cuts interest rates, it will declare prudent monetary policy unchanged. The advantage of this policy to the stock market is that the stock market is not bad money, and it is not bad to cut interest rates and achieve good expectations. In a word, such a financial policy is conducive to investors' confidence in stock speculation.

This week and next week, the market is constrained by the financial pressure of the monthly IPO, but the state-owned enterprise reform headed by Shanghai is still strong. Shanghai state owned operation platform has been officially started and operated. O Hikarua, Jian Gong and SAIC's state-owned shares have been transferred. A wave of restructuring of listed companies with innovative reform as the core content is bound to be fully opened in an orderly and positive way this year.