RMB'S "Drop And Fall" Institutions Loosen The Range Of Gambling
Some investment institutions are making efforts to create a market climate for the renminbi's spot exchange rate to continue to stop trading through the exchange trading, which means that the high gambling central bank has increased the volatility elasticity of the RMB exchange rate and may further relax the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate in the two quarter.
What is more, in the bet on the need for economic growth, China's central bank has to abandon the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and link the US dollar to increase the proportion of a basket of currencies, such as the euro and yen.
In February 27th, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar dropped to 6.2695 at the beginning of the session, compared with the 6.1475 decline in the middle price of the day, reaching 1.98%, once again approaching the 2% lower limit of the single day exchange rate set by the central bank.
This is the three consecutive trading day approaching the limit after the Spring Festival.
"Since February, the new normal of RMB exchange rate fluctuation is almost daily hovering near the limit price."
A foreign exchange trader at Hongkong local bank joked.
He roughly estimated that the cumulative number of RMB spot exchange rates approaching the limit since February has exceeded 10 days.
But he bluntly said that after the Spring Festival RMB
exchange rate
It seems unreasonable to continue to approach the limit because the current economic data do not support the frequent fall of the spot exchange rate.
During the Spring Festival, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by HSBC showed that the initial PMI data in February rose to 50.1 in the last four months.
China's economy
At the same time, the Fed's top executives hinted at a possible slowdown in interest rate hikes.
Reporters learned from many traders that RMB after the Spring Festival
Spot rate
One of the reasons behind the continuous closure of the market is the surge in exchange trading.
In fact, a lot of enterprises and investment institutions find that the quoted price of RMB exchange rate in offshore offshore market is much lower than that in the domestic offshore market. The first thing is to buy foreign exchange in the territory (to buy US dollars to sell RMB), and then to sell the foreign exchange (buying RMB to sell US dollar) through the territory to acquire the price difference between RMB and foreign exchange.
A foreign exchange broker frankly said that with the further increase in the yuan devaluation expected during the Spring Festival, the exchange trading is becoming more and more intense.
He found that some investment institutions are deliberately creating a market atmosphere of "down limits" on the spot exchange rate through the exchange trading, which means that the central bank has increased the volatility elasticity of the RMB exchange rate and may further relax the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate in the two quarter.
What is more, in the bet on the need for economic growth, China's central bank has to abandon the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and link the US dollar to increase the proportion of a basket of currencies, such as the euro and yen.
"Their abacus is that these exchange rate reform policies will trigger greater fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, thereby gaining a more substantial exchange rate return."
The foreign exchange broker bluntly said.
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