PTA: It Is Not Easy To Go Up Sharply.

During the Spring Festival, international oil prices fell sharply, leading to the opening of the first trading day of domestic chemical products futures. But in February, the PMI value of China's HSBC was better than expected, and chemical products futures kept going at a low level, maintaining the trend of strong pre holiday oscillation.

PTA futures are relatively weak.

By the US crude oil output continued to rise and the stock continued to accumulate, the international oil price during the Spring Festival reversed the strong rebound trend before, and the callback was oscillatory. As of February 24th, the main contract of WTI crude oil was closed at $49.28 / barrel in April, down 5 US dollars / barrel or 9.2% before the Spring Festival. The April contract of Brent crude oil closed at 58.66 US dollars / barrel, down 3.87 US dollars / barrel or 6.18% before the Spring Festival.

As of February 13th, the United States

Output reached 9 million 280 thousand barrels per day, the weekly ring ratio increased by 54 thousand barrels per day, and US business inventories increased 7 million 700 thousand barrels to 425 million 600 thousand barrels, a 30 year high.

At present, the downstream refineries are in

In the off-season demand, there is no sign of contraction in the international crude oil supply, and the accumulation of international crude oil stocks, including the United States, is a big probability event.

In addition, OPEC denied that Nigeria's oil minister's statement on the emergency meeting of OPEC states showed that Saudi Arabia's leading Gulf States still adhere to the policy of no reduction in production.

The largest oil production in Libya has been restored, and Iraq's crude oil exports are expected to resume in the coming weeks. The supply of crude oil in OPEC will be abundant.

Therefore, under the influence of sufficient supply of crude oil market and seasonal demand, the probability of maintaining the bottom wide oscillation in the latter part of international oil price is larger.

In January, with the sharp decline of domestic major commodity imports, China's PX imports remained at a high level of 945 thousand tons, an increase of 11.2% over the same period last year, indicating that domestic PTA factories have a better demand for raw materials PX. On the other hand, it also shows that the PTA plant has adopted the strategy of hoarding PX at the beginning of the year, thus gaining the initiative position for the pricing game of the whole year.

From the perspective of domestic supply, the load of 1 million tons of Qingdao LT plant has been reduced to 50% to 60%; and the 1 million 400 thousand tons of Fu Jia Dahua has been stopped due to equipment failure.

Device load is maintained at 66.7% level.

Taking into account the high starting load of PTA factories in China in February and the low PX ratio of imports due to the Spring Festival factor, PX will be in the high digestion stage of the month.

However, due to the high inventory pressure of PX itself and the expected production of the new 1 million 600 thousand ton PX plant in CICC, the PX price increase is limited.

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At present, most cotton mill in Xinjiang has a large stock of cotton, and a ginning factory in Akesu is stocking more than 7000 tons of cotton, and intends to move to the mainland in the near future.

The 3128 class hand picked cotton has been quoted to Shandong, Jiangsu and other places. The price is quoted at 14000-14300 yuan / ton, and the 2128 class price is 14300-14400 yuan / ton, all of which are unchanged from the Spring Festival, and there are hardly any sales records in the near future.

The financial pressure of Xinjiang ginning factory increased after several years. Some enterprises increased their financial costs through social financing, plus the need to pay warehousing, storage, pportation and loan interest and warehousing costs to the mainland.

Up to now, most farmers and cotton planting units in Xinjiang haven't purchased materials such as cotton seeds, plastic film, fertilizer, pesticide and so on. In particular, some Uygur farmers have low enthusiasm to purchase agricultural materials before they were launched in April.

First, cotton farmers' income in 2014 is not high; two, domestic cotton prices are expected to remain low in 2015.

The market is expected to reduce cotton planting area by more than 10% in Xinjiang next year.

The the Yellow River river basin is in a "sting" state.

As of 25, Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin and other places are still immersed in festive atmosphere.

On the same day, Mr. Li, owner of a 400 type cotton ginning factory in Xiajin, Shandong, said that their factory plans to start work after ten in the beginning of the month, which has been postponed for 3 days compared with previous years.

According to him, after the Spring Festival this year, the local ginning factory is still "no action".

The reason is: first, there is not much seed cotton in the market, and the quality is poor, which is not attractive to the ginning plant. Two, the current stock market is not good enough, especially the purchasing attitude of textile enterprises is negative, and the cost of enterprises is "upside down".

On the same day, Shandong, Binzhou, Dezhou and other places 3128 class real estate cotton price 12900-13100 yuan / ton, 4128 level 12400-12500 yuan / ton, continue to quote before the Spring Festival.

At present, most of the 400 type cotton ginning plants have low stock of lint, generally below 100 tons, and some ginning plants are at 500-600 tons.

Some ginning plants reflect that after the Spring Festival, they will no longer buy seed cotton and sell mainly lint.

The market expects that the cotton price in the the Yellow River River Basin will be divided after the first ten days of March. First, the price of quality Xinjiang cotton, real estate cotton and imported cotton will rise, of which grade 2129 Xinjiang cotton will rise to 15000 yuan / ton; two, the general quality cotton, Xinjiang hand picked cotton and India Chen cotton will continue to go down, of which 2227 grade real estate cotton price is around 12000 yuan / ton.

The quantity tax reduction of the ginning plant in the Yangtze valley.

Up to now, market participants in Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui in the Yangtze River Valley have been greatly reduced after the Spring Festival.

On the 25 day, the head of a 400 type ginning factory in Wuhan, Hubei, Niu said that they still had 210 tons of lint on hand, and that they would no longer buy and process after they were sold out.

According to him, after more than 70 years, the local cotton ginning mill estimated that the normal operation will be below 10.

First, before the Spring Festival, most factories ended up losing money, and cotton processing industry was not profitable. It became a common understanding. Two, the cotton area in the Yangtze River Basin had been greatly reduced, and most of the ginning plants had "no rice under the pot".

It is reported that at present, the acquisition of cotton in the Yangtze River Basin has completed more than 80%. After that, the quantity of cotton is small and the quality is poor.