PTA Is In The Stage Of Social Inventory Accumulation, And The Demand For Terminal Demand Is Not Picking Up.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the PTA factory extended the characteristics of high load operation in previous years. The operating rate remained at a high level near 75%, while the downstream polyester link load gradually dropped to a low level of 66.4%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was also falling to the lowest level of 10% in the whole year.

As a result, the entire PTA inventory in February will accumulate at least 450 thousand tons to 1 million 370 thousand tons.

It was higher than 60% near the high point of nearly 10 months.

With the end of the Spring Festival holiday,

as well as

Load will gradually increase.

However, we analyze the seasonal characteristics of textile orders and polyester production. Due to the late spring festival in 2015 and the delayed demand season in autumn and winter in late 2014, the peak season for spring and summer is expected to be postponed in the next 2015, so the seasonal demand for terminal demand in the short term is not very strong, and the upgrading of upstream raw materials is limited.

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Recently, cotton association of Dezhou city of Shandong province surveyed cotton farmers' intentions in 2015. The results showed that cotton planting willingness decreased significantly. In 2015, the cotton planting area decreased by about 42% compared with last year.

In 2014, Dezhou cotton had high yield and good quality.

In 2014, the average yield of seed cotton in 2014 was 273 kg, the highest yield in the past ten years. At the same time, the quality of cotton was good, the white cotton grade two was 5.8%, the white cotton grade three was 86.8%, and it was also the best quality in recent years.

Cotton production is high and quality is good, but the price has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the average selling price of seed cotton is 6.35 yuan / kg, mu income 1733 yuan, and the cost of planting cotton and Mu is 1308 yuan (50 yuan per day), and the net income of cotton planting Mu is 425 yuan.

According to statistics, the net income of the local grain crops is 1068 yuan, and the grain yield is 643 yuan per mu more than the cotton seed per mu.

In addition, there is a subsidy of 125 yuan for agricultural grain, and only 15 yuan is subsidized for cotton planting. Grain farmers earn more than 753 yuan per mu of cotton farmers.

The cotton planting area will drop sharply in 2015.

The cotton association of Dezhou investigated 270 cotton growers, planted 1211 mu in 2014, and planned to grow 702 mu in 2015, a decrease of 42% over the previous year.

64% of cotton growers said they had reduced cotton area in 2015 or had replanted wheat.

The main reasons for the sudden drop in cotton planting area are: first, the low benefit of cotton planting.

The price of cotton is too low, and the benefit of planting cotton and Mu is less than 753 yuan.

In recent years, the state grain policy has been directly supplemented and supplemented. The minimum purchase price of wheat is 118 yuan per 50 kilograms.

Seed cotton prices did not rise or fall, from an average of 8.4 yuan per kilogram in 2013 to 6.35 yuan per kilogram.

In 2014, the grain harvest in Dezhou was stable, and the stable grain prices stimulated farmers to abandon cotton and grow grain.

Two, we need more cotton seed and less grain.

Grain is basically mechanized from sowing to harvesting, with little labor in the field, and time to earn money when going out to work; and the low degree of mechanization of cotton production, from sowing, management, spraying medicine (old people do not move, young people do not want to do), and cotton repair to picking, are all manual operations.

The three is local soil, grain, seed and cotton.

Most of the saline alkali soil in Dezhou has been improved, and the water conditions have been improved.

Four, cotton subsidy has not been released so far.

In 2015, there were less than two months for new cotton planting, but the cotton subsidy was not allocated in 2014.