Imports Continued To Decline, The Downward Pressure On The Economy Increased.

Exports increased substantially in February, while imports continued to decline sharply. The trade surplus of the recession continued to remain at around us $60 billion. Although the sharp increase in exports and the continued decline in imports were all within our expectations, the magnitude of the drop in imports still exceeded market expectations, indicating that the downward pressure on the economy was increasing. The main reason for the sharp increase in exports in February was that the base was too low, and the sharp decline in imports was mainly affected by insufficient domestic demand. In addition, the dislocation of the Spring Festival also played a role in boosting the growth of exports and the decline in imports. As domestic demand continues to slack and commodity prices continue to slump, imports will continue to be the current weakness, while the sluggish global economic growth will still be the main constraint on China's exports.

The growth of exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN has become the main force driving China's exports. From the perspective of national structure, exports to the US and ASEAN continue to be important support for China's export growth, which increased by 48% and 84% respectively, and the export to the EU has also improved. The increase has reached 44%, and the three have contributed nearly 30 percentage points to China's exports. Exports to other BRICs countries have also increased rapidly, contributing nearly 10 percentage points to China's exports. As Japan's demand continues to slack and the Japanese yen depreciates, exports to Japan are still the main drag on China's exports. In February, the growth rate was 24%, contributing only about 2 percentage points. In addition, the decline in Hongkong's export growth has also become an important reason for the drag on China's export growth. Exports to Hongkong in February dropped by 11%. We believe that although exports rebounded sharply, they are likely to be short-lived. Under the current global economic and political environment, the pressure on exports can not be ignored.

　　 clothing , footwear Exports of traditional and advantageous products such as textiles and furniture grew strongly, while the export of automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits declined year-on-year: from the perspective of commodity structure, exports grew faster in February than clothing, footwear, etc. textile The traditional advantage products such as bags, furniture, lamps and lanterns were all growing at 90%~150%, contributing 25 percentage points to exports. Exports of agricultural products, plastic products, aluminum products and other products also increased to varying degrees, contributing nearly 15 percentage points to exports, while the export of high-tech products such as automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits declined slightly. The main reason for the sharp rebound in exports of these traditional superior products is the low base last year. We do not think that the living environment of these industries is improving.

Imports continued to decline sharply, the downward pressure on the economy increased: imports dropped sharply in February. On the one hand, there were factors of dislocation in the Spring Festival. On the other hand, they were mainly affected by domestic price depression and weak demand. From the perspective of countries, imports of the US, Europe, Japan and ASEAN decreased significantly, falling by 26%, 16%, 15% and 15% respectively. The contribution of the four to imports was close to -10%, and the imports to Korea, Hongkong and other BRICs and other countries also showed negative growth. The contribution to imports was about -7%. From the perspective of commodity structure, the major products were mainly oil, iron ore, steel and other bulk commodities, and contributed nearly -10% to imports, which had a great relationship with the continuous downturn of commodity prices. In addition, the import of vegetable oils, coal, natural rubber, automobiles and other products also declined significantly, and contributed about -8% of imports. The continued sharp decline in imports reflects the downward pressure on the economy. The slowdown in economic growth will inhibit the growth of imports. We expect imports to maintain a downward trend in the short term.