Xu Biao: The 4000 Point Is The Gateway That Needs To Be Conquered This Year.

After entering the March, the empty voice suddenly increased. Anyway, all kinds of reasons boil down to one thing: to wear a seat belt and prepare for the fall of the market. It should be admitted that from the historical point of view, it is a very good strategy for the two sessions to take a short look. Generally speaking, after the Spring Festival, the liquidity is good and the two sessions are good and hazy. The stock market will usually rise one after another, and wait until the various benefits of the two sessions are fulfilled.

To tell you the truth, I am generally skeptical about the simple summary of historical laws. There was no reason for him. When he was a child, he studied the story of cutting the boat and pursuing the sword. He always held a distant view on this kind of thing like what he did not. Lu Xun said that when things were different, things were different. Every stage, capital market has its own main contradiction. Firmly grasp the main contradiction is the king's way. Although investments are made up of various kinds of mistakes, they will not at least make a big mistake. Take this year as an example, we need to understand one thing: what is the main contradiction in the capital market? Or, what is the main factor that determines the market quotation?

Starting from the fundamental driving force of the stock market, we explained in detail the basis of the current market, and boldly speculated that the driving force of the current market is neither the corporate earnings nor the economic cycle, nor the risk free interest rate.

"From August 2014 to the present, household sector funds have entered the market on a large scale through leveraged tools such as the matching market, such as the two financial market. (Note: careful investors will find that the two stages coincide. August and September are the months of transformation and nurture. This is normal. Any new thing will happen in the late stage of the old. The total amount of data in the allocation market has not been found for the time being, but the scale of the two financial businesses is very clear: after August, it entered the two digit growth period. By the end of 2014, the balance of financing was close to one trillion, of which about 400 billion came from banks.

People should have principles, and analysts are no exception. Since we have guessed that this round of market is a leveraged bull market, the foundation lies in the bank capital access to the city, then we need to follow the two words of leverage to find and study the problem.

Step one: explain what happened in the past two months. In the past two months, we can sum up everything in the capital market in two sentences: the index is weak, and the small ones are much larger than the big ones. Honestly, starting from leverage, it soon came to light.

In January 2015 and February, the CBRC, the SFC and the CIRC took the lead in regulating the leverage bull market, and the amount of funds interconnected with the financing balance decreased significantly. The growth rate of the CBRC decreased significantly and returned to the low speed range before the market started last year. There is no continuous large scale incremental capital coming in. How can the big ticket move? How can the index rise? There is no opportunity for big ticket. The stock fund will not rest in an honest way. It will only drill holes in the mountain to find opportunities. It is just that the wind of innovation and innovation is rapidly blowing up, and the Internet plus strategy has swept through, so the growth of stocks and small ticket fires has helped to make the wind surge.

You see, this is what happened in the past two months. Following this logic, we can at least explain the ups and downs and styles. The most interesting part of the capital market is that everyone likes to shorten the long-term problem. At the end of December last year, when the big ticket went up and the small ticket opened and fell, we all watched the large cap stocks vigorously, looking for explanations from the aspects of liquidity promotion, registration system reinventing the valuation system and so on.

Today, after two and a half months of two or three fold increase, the story of growth and transformation is once again popular among the people. Before and after the Spring Festival, the author made a grass-roots survey found that, basically, the hands of the securities companies have been shot. What are the stock positions of brokerages in general less than five percent? What does it mean? It means that in just two months, investors who have taken the bull market to pledge to marry a brokerage firm have already quietly changed their minds and moved on to the small ticket.

You see, this is our capital market. Plans never seem to catch up with changes. There is no eternal love, only the "covenant" of quick success and instant benefit? In the long term practical struggle, we have developed the habit of contrasting and forecasting important habits. They are the most experienced fishermen. They do not need to know where the wind blows tomorrow. They only need to know what to do when the wind comes out.

In order to make our fickle more secure, we must look for various long-term reasons for psychological massage, so when rising, long-term logical short-term is natural choice. So when falling, putting aside long-term logic is also a natural choice.

However, those of us who are forced to make a living can not do this because the prediction is our main task. If we do not want to lay off, we will have to take the lead.

Before launching the prediction, it is necessary to take the abnormal situation in March for discussion.

Beginning in March, Financing balance The growth rate of the ring ratio began to soar. By March 13th, the balance of financing has increased by 13.9% in just ten trading days. If this rate is maintained, the growth of the March balance will exceed 30%, the highest peak since last year. Why did this happen? After four commercial banks' research, we can basically confirm that the reasons are as follows:

First, under the trend of sharp reduction in supply of non-standard assets, Commercial bank assets The downward pressure on end yield shows that they have sufficient motivation to deploy assets to all kinds of assets, such as two beneficial benefits, structured assets, and other high-yield and stable returns. Simply put, as long as you continue to control non-standard assets, resulting in reduced supply, all funds will have sufficient power to indirectly enter the capital market to obtain a stable return.

No matter whether the CBRC, the CIRC or the SFC norm can interfere with this trend, it can not change this trend. You see, the norms have just come to an end, and all kinds of new financial innovations have sprung up like mushrooms.

Second, in 1 and February last year, commercial banks issued a large number of one-year non-standard assets, and then happily put them into their asset pools. Starting from March this year, these lovely high-yield assets have expired, and the downward pressure on asset pool yields has increased sharply. In desperation, banks were forced to intensify their efforts to find new high-yield assets. So far, the least controversial direction is indirect market entry. A large commercial bank has even structured the task of financing to every financial manager.

Lang has feelings and concubines are interested. If there is no accident, the bull market will start a new journey in March. 3478 the gateway will soon be trampled underfoot, and the 4000 point is the gateway that really needs to be conquered in 2015.

The question is, will there be an accident? Of course, since it is a lever. bull market Before the opening of the second half of the household sector directly into the market, any regulation, clean-up and consolidation of the leveraged bull market will trigger a sharp fluctuation in the market. At the beginning of this year, the standard "three axes" came from the 4 quarter capital market skyrocketing, which led to an increase in the cost of financing of the real economy. The SFC is happy that the stock market is rising. The cost of financing in the real economy is rising. The central bank is very depressed. The result of the game is naturally required to regulate. Will this round of market encounter the same trouble?

At least in the short term, the probability is not large. Because during the two sessions, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, told the media that capital entering the stock market also supported the real economy. After entering 2015, economic security 7 has become the number one task of government work. Financial support for the real economy is no more than two ways, either you can complete by debt financing, or you can complete through equity financing.

Through debt financing to complete, it means that the central bank to take a super loose policy to encourage and even pressure commercial banks to release loans, the last four trillion round of bad debts, iceberg just came to the front, and the risk is obvious. Who dare to do another round? Equity financing does not exist this problem, anyway, you do not have to return it. Next, let's relax the listing standards. If there are no profitable enterprises, we will have more than 20 IPO per month, and then invest in acquisitions to make investment.

The situation has undergone favorable changes. Looking at the Chinese stock market from the height of steady growth, you will find that the conditions for the new round of rising are all there.

In the face of the possible rise, what should we take? Completely placing the position in the small ticket system, the risk return is no longer appropriate, at least first of all to achieve balanced allocation. Specifically, if we reduce it to two industries, we recommend left-hand Finance (mainly Banking) and right-hand military work (Beidou industrial chain). Without finance, the index will not be able to go through the customs. Without the Beidou industrial chain, ALPHA income is impossible. Are you willing to miss the policy driven theme + industry fundamentals flip + imagination three huge superimposed things?