Water Skin: China Version QE Release Bank Risk

Apart from the prime minister's press conference, the news conference of the two sessions of the National People's Congress is not only the press conference of the ministers of the strong departments, but also the director of the development and Reform Commission, or the Minister of finance, or the Minister of foreign affairs or the Minister of national defense, and of course the governor of the central bank.

Frankly speaking,

The performance is neither too hot nor too bad, but related.

The commentary is impressive and has become a rare highlight in recent days.

When Zhou Xiaochuan answered questions, he was right to say that I did not approve of the fact that capital entered the stock market, which did not support the real economy.

There are so many entities in the stock market financing, of course, there are indeed some financial pactions may be divorced from the entity, but can not be generalized, as if the stock market's capital is not to support the real economy.

Perhaps some people disagree, because Zhou Xiaochuan is just common sense, and is very simple common sense, similar to the truth formula common sense, do not explain common sense; but if we take into account the identity of governor Zhou Xiaochuan, taking into account the identity of Zhou Xiaochuan before the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, taking into account the background of China's financial management enterprise guidance, Zhou Xiaochuan can express this expression is not easy, politically frank, theoretically clear, worthy of our praise.

The economy is the economy, but we do not know who put forward the concept of real economy and fictitious economy.

What is the real economy? Compared with the farming of the first industry, the business of the third industry may be virtual; compared with the third industry's business, the higher form of capital market is virtual; whether the production material industry is an entity, or the industry engaged in the paction is fictitious, and there is no definite answer.

In real life, material production and paction pricing are integral parts of a business activity. Whether a company is engaged in machinery manufacturing or film production, whether it is commodity or stock price, it is a complete price system. It can not be said that the price of commodities is real, the stock price is virtual, the capital market does not create wealth but the distribution place of wealth, and the distribution of wealth in turn will certainly guide the way and output, structure and function of wealth creation.

Two sides.

The performance of the listed company is good, the share price rises, the stock price rises, the market value of the company is high, the higher the market value is, the stronger the market value is, the stronger the ability to repurchase the other companies and the stronger the ability to refinance; conversely, if the stock market is depressed for a long time, the market value will be underestimated, and the company's performance will be no good. It is not only impossible to refinance and merge others, but it may become the target of merger and acquisition.

These are not theoretical deductions, but the portrayal of the vicious circle of mutual influence between China's economy and capital markets in the past 5 years. To get out of this strange circle, we must break the two contradictory thinking of dividing the economy into entity and virtual, and consider the combination of revitalizing stock market and restoring growth, giving full play to positive energy; otherwise,

In the doldrums, ups and down, the stock market is booming, and the stock market is flourishing. It is a great fear. It is a dilemma. It is not a rise or fall. Even if it rises or rises, it will not rise.

China's economy is born out of the planned economy, and the financing mode is still mainly indirect financing in the past, now and in the future. This is a Chinese characteristic, also a Chinese problem, and a hidden worry for China.

The risks are at the bank end, and the growth of weak assets and failure of pformation can all form bad debts. In the last ten years, local debts will eventually be paid by banks. This is also an important reason for the serious underestimation of the stock market value of China's banks. In fact, the index of China's stock market is mainly financial and banking and stone oil. The underestimation of bank stocks directly leads to the index bear market of the main board. Clearly, these connections will make us understand why the first one trillion local debt replacement schemes announced by the Ministry of Finance constitute a major positive impact on bank stocks, because they effectively reduce the risk of China's banking industry. The QE of the United States is the face of the Fed, and China's QE is the Treasury's operating board. The version is different, the effect is the same. Indirect financing is bank loans, and direct financing is IPO equity financing. The former needs to repay principal and interest, and the latter is interest sharing and risk sharing. 70% of the financing is concentrated in the banking system, which means the systematicness of China's economy.

In fact, the growth of bank stocks without worries about future bad assets is very brilliant. The average 20%-30% growth is more than that of small and medium sized boards and gem, and the growth space is full of imagination. Considering the full licence of mixed operation in the future, it is necessary for banks to make a comeback.