Chen Shi: Financial Blue Chips Are Still Worth Strategically Collocating.

We have discussed many times about the significance of the 3478 point. The important point is that the 3478 point is the high point of the big B wave in the last big bear market. After a new bull market starts, we must break through the high bounce point in the bear market, which means that the market is a bull market reversal rather than a bear market rally. Therefore, breaking through the 3478 points this week is of great significance, indicating that this market trend since the 1849 point is the beginning of a new long term bull market.

Since the big bull market is coming from the big bear market from 6124 to 1849, then the new bull market that has been reopened will definitely reach a record high after a breakthrough of 3478 points. That is to say, after the 3478 point, the 6124 point is the next strategic goal of the bull market. Of course, this may take a longer process. At the 3600 point of the market, we can say that the shadow of the 7 year bear market has completely disappeared. Since then, the new bull market has really started, and the road may be tortuous, but the future is bright.

Fundamentally speaking, the reform is still continuing, and the dividend reform is far from being released. The reform of cattle is still the core logic of the stock market's rise. On the capital side, the long-term trend of interest rate entering the downlink has already been formed. Zhou Xiaochuan clearly recognized that capital entering the stock market is also supporting the real economy. Xiao Gang said that the financing quota of our stock market is still in a reasonable controllable range. Therefore, it is expected that more and more capital will enter into the capital market in the future, which will provide a strong support for the stock market to continue to take the bull. Of course, the bull market must finally have performance support. When the reform and transformation gradually see benefits, the "reform of cattle" will naturally turn to "performance bull". In this regard, the overall market has good expectations.

As far as the current market is concerned, it should be said that it is far from the level of frenzy of bull market in 2007. An important sign is that the stock market in the past had not yet appeared, nor did everyone appear to make money. equity market Without madness, we will not see the top, so from the perspective of behavioral finance, the bull market is still on the way.

From the market side, though Gem The growth stocks represented by the company have been in full swing. However, the valuation of blue chips such as banks and insurance is still in a historical position, and the valuation of brokerage stocks is far from the historical position. Ping An is a comprehensive financial unit that integrates insurance, banking and securities. Its earnings per share in 2014 were as high as 4.93 yuan, the net profit increased by 40% over the same period last year, and the 10 plus 10 dividend scheme of 5 yuan. The valuation of bank shares is lower, 6-7 times. P / E ratio Very common. At present, the fundamentals of banking stocks are undergoing major changes. Recently, the Ministry of finance has issued a 1 trillion yuan replacement bond amount of local stock debt, which has eliminated or lightened the huge hidden danger of bad loans of banks, which in fact means a significant improvement in the fundamentals of banking stocks. In the future, bank stocks must have a value return process, and the stock price can be doubled from the current multiple price earnings ratio to ten times price earnings ratio.

Therefore, the current stock market does not have a systemic risk. In particular, the financial blue chips have not yet risen, the market is still relatively safe. Only when financial blue chips pick up to a reasonable price level will the market turn into a new adjustment cycle again.

When the financial blue chips start again, they will push the market into a new fast rising stage. Technically speaking, this is the first wave of the bull market. It is estimated that the 4000 point will be a foreseeable goal. In fact, banks and brokerage firms play a leading role in the key points of each market. At present, financial blue chips are still worthy of strategic allocation.