A New Round Of Hong Kong Stock Market Opening Up

Since the beginning of March, the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks has been completely reversed since last week. The Hang Seng Index has been on the line for three consecutive weeks, but it showed a strong rebound last week and recovered several moving averages in one fell swoop.

At present, the Hang Seng index still faces the psychological pressure at the top 25000 important juncture. In the short term, it is an interval consolidation or a breakthrough, and we still need to pay attention to the latest developments in the peripheral market.

However, it was observed that the volume of recent pactions has rebounded significantly. The turnover volume of last Thursday and Friday exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars. The market sentiment has become increasingly active, and the index of Hang Seng Index has also improved, and the new rising channel has been opened.

On Monday, Hong Kong stocks rose along with the peripheral market. The Hang Seng index opened 163 points in early trading, followed by a narrow concussion. It fluctuated mainly around 24500 points and closed at 24494.51 points, up 119.27 points, or 0.49%, and traded at HK $91 billion 750 million.

The state-owned enterprises index closed at 12177.82 points, up 21.42 points, or 0.18%.

Judging from the market, blue chip stocks are rising and falling, leading to the rise of internal risk shares, and the rise of real estate stocks. On the contrary, betting stocks have gone back, and oil shares are in a poor trend.

Last week

The decision conference again released a mild signal to the market. Although the forward-looking guidelines abolished the phrase "patience", the Fed lowered the median estimate of the federal funds target interest rate at the end of 2015, and suggested that it was right.

And other concerns.

In view of this, the market seems to have more reasons to expect the first time to raise interest rates or postpone to the end of the third quarter of this year. The US stock market took the opportunity to launch a counterattack last week, and the three indexes all gained 2%-3% growth.

In addition, the dollar index turned down last week due to recent U.S.

Poor performance, the decline of the US dollar or easing the market's concern that the strong dollar might trigger downward pressure on the economy is also good.

On the whole, the US stock market is likely to continue to rebound in the short term along with the increase in interest rate worries. This week, the market needs to pay attention to the latest economic data, such as the latest inflation data, the PMI and the final value of GDP in the fourth quarter of last year.

In the mainland market, the recent trend of A shares can be seen as strong. Loose capital and favorable policy expectations, especially the frequent positive signals from management to the capital market, have all contributed to the better atmosphere of investment in the market.

But it is worth noting that, after continuous innovation, the short-term cumulative increase of A shares has been large, especially after the Shanghai stock index broke through the previous strong pressure level of 3478 points, without any pause to continue to attack, this inevitably triggered a sore anxiety.

Therefore, although the A shares do more dynamic energy, the market needs to remain vigilant.

To sum up, at present, the peripheral market is still in good condition, or there is a chance to drive Hong Kong stock to open up a new round of rising corridor space.

In addition, the US dollar index has recently shown that the pressure on Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has decreased, or is conducive to attracting capital inflows, while the Hang Seng Index has been oscillating in the short term or from 24500 to 25000.

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The author of this article is HSBC global capital market, Liu Jiahui, who is a licensed person of the HKMA and the SFC, and does not have any direct or indirect interest in structured products or related assets.