Export Of Capital To Raise RMB Demand And RMB Bullish Signal

Beijing (CNFIN.COM / XINHUA08.COM) in the background of a narrow consolidation of the US dollar index to the 100 point integer mark, the RMB has strengthened against the US dollar's intermediate price and spot exchange rate, of which the spot exchange rate has recorded the largest single day increase since 2015. Investors expect the renminbi to take a further step on the way to becoming the global reserve currency, and the RMB exchange rate has also been boosted.

In March 18th, the renminbi was traded against the US dollar. exchange rate Continuation of yesterday's rally, the early opening of the high jump once rose to break the 6.24 pass. On the 17 day, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed up 125 basis points or 0.20%, and set a record high of 6.2499 since February 17th. It also refreshed the biggest single day increase this year. Today, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar is 6.1556, the highest level since March 6th, up 29 basis points from the previous day.

After the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany announced that they would apply for the intention to join the Asian infrastructure investment bank (asib).

Xie Yaxuan, chief macroeconomic analyst of China Merchants Securities, recently released a report that whether BRICs Development Bank, Asia investment bank or silk road fund, its common purpose is to provide credit support to infrastructure construction such as highway, railway, communication network, port logistics and so on, so as to realize RMB capital export.

The report also believes that one of the prerequisites for China to provide financial support to all countries along the belt is to purchase our products. After raising the level of RMB internationalization, it is logical to use Renminbi to finance related countries. Therefore, the internationalization of RMB is conducive to the export of capital in China, and the relevant countries are willing to accept RMB loan funds. In the implementation of the "one belt and one road" plan, it helps to protect our interests from infringement.

Analysts believe that the increase in Renminbi demand can be attributed to investors expecting the renminbi to be a step closer to becoming the global reserve currency. This year, the yuan will become one of the reserve currencies of the International Monetary Fund (SDR).

Spokesman for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Rice Recently, IMF will consider the composition of the SDR currency basket in the second half of 2015, and will comprehensively consider the development of the RMB market since 2010.

Yi Gang, vice president of the people's Bank of China, said that for the renminbi to enter the SDR, there must be a common sense. This is a process that is well established and ripe. He believes that the renminbi's accession to the SDR will help expand the representativeness of SDR and promote the reform of the international monetary system, which will also play a catalytic role in the reform and opening up of China's financial sector.

The Bank of East Asia says that the renminbi will probably stabilise in the next quarter when the renminbi is likely to join the SDR basket of currencies, and it will reach the level of the beginning of the year.

Goldman Sachs has been short for months. RMB The reason is that China's negative PPI, export competitors' currency devaluation and capital outflow and other factors drag down the depreciation of the RMB.

Barclays Greater China chief economist Chang Jian and others also reported that due to continued outflow of capital, it is expected that the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will run through 2015. The Central Bank of China is more likely to allow a limited exchange rate depreciation through the middle price, but it is unlikely that the exchange rate management mechanism will be retreated and there will be no significant depreciation. In addition, the expansion of the renminbi's one-day volatility is likely to be the direction of development this year, but it will not come soon. It is expected that the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will increase.

In the short term, the market will focus on the meeting of the open market committee of the Federal Reserve, which ended 19 hours in Beijing. If the Fed hints that it will raise interest rates as soon as possible, then the US dollar will be boosted, which may limit the rise of the yuan against the US dollar.