It Is Necessary For Monetary Policy To Remain Relaxed.

In early 2015, the index of economic data did not recover with the advent of spring. China's GDP growth rate in 2014 was only 7.4%, the slowness of economic growth since 1990. As an important indicator of Keqiang index, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased only slightly, while the railway freight volume decreased by 3.9% compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the two indexes of CPI and PPI also created the lowest level since November 2009. Worse still, the Chinese economy appeared to have negative growth provinces. For example, Liaoning's industrial growth rate dropped 4.5% in the first two months of 2015.

From a macro perspective, this is Monetary tightening As a result, we can analyze from the data: as at the end of December 2014, the balance of broad currency (M2) was 122 trillion and 840 billion yuan, but most of them were "derivative currencies". The amount of basic currency equivalent to real gold and silver was only 32 trillion yuan. At the end of 12 last year, the balance of foreign currency deposits was 117 trillion and 370 billion yuan. Even in accordance with the reserve fund 18%, 20 trillion and 200 billion of the frozen money was accounted for, which accounted for 63% of the 32 trillion of the basic currency. That is, China's 63% currency was lying in the central bank's sleep and was not in circulation at all. This is the root of China's "money shortage" in recent years.

In recent years, professional scholars have appealed to China to relax monetary policy moderately. China has not loosened its currency. In fact, it is also worried that loose money will further push up housing prices. The current housing prices and real estate sales are relatively low, but the real demand for Chinese housing is not small.

stay Monetary tightening In the big environment, economic growth can only rely on finance plus leverage, and in fact, it is not enough to increase leverage in finance. It should start private investment. The potential of China's private economy is great. The problem now is that industries with relatively good economic prospects are in a state of no money. If China wants to reduce its leverage by finance, it must start the private sector. Enterprise investment Loosening money is a way to go around. Interest reduction can partially reduce the cost of financing, but the effect will not be very good, because it is not because interest is too high, but because the currency is too small, a large amount of money is frozen in the form of deposit reserve in the central bank, and commercial banks also have no money. However, most of the private money comes from banks. The reason is very simple.

In fact, the channels for Chinese currency to flow from financial institutions to enterprises are smooth. In the process of heavy investment and Internet Financial remittance, this channel is more smooth than before, and the channels are more diverse. Why is the real economy still "lacking water"? The most fundamental reason is not that the central bank failed to "cut interest rates", but that the amount of money was too small, which led to the excessive price of money. After several successive "interest rates", the central bank's monetary policy seems to have been in a loose state. Commercial banks do have funds, but this kind of capital is "living water" on the surface, which is still locked in the central bank's safe. That is to say, China's huge stock of money does not exist in commercial banks, nor in shadow banks. Shadow banks are only distributors of commercial banks, and the real money stock is in the central bank. Therefore, Prime Minister Li Keqiang has raised the right to activate the stock of money, and to activate the stock must start with the central bank.

Only when monetary policy is adjusted to normal can China's economy grow. All of these need the guidance of the government, but this is not terrible, because the relationship between the government and the market has always been complementary to each other. The market economy also needs the moderate intervention of the government. The exclusion of the government will inevitably not do the market. The more the government serves the market, the greater the market will do, which is the original law of the market economy.