Bull Market In The First Half To Pay Attention To Hot Switching

In the upcoming new quarter, after two forces have been shown, will the market worry that the two quarter will fall into a lack of adjustment? Will the two quarter increase further? What is the driving force?

At present, investors have basically formed a consensus on the bull market. The entrance of OTC funds has become the core force to drive the current stock market to continue to rise. So what stage has the bull market been running so far? This is the key to judge the two quarter and formulate the operation plan.

Compared with historical data, today's index is 3700 points compared with 3478 in 2009 and 6124 in 2007. The Shanghai stock index 3478 point valuation level, all A shares PE (in accordance with the moving average method) 20 times, the 2009 high point is 37 times, and 2007 6124 points data 54 times.

From this point of view, even if we calculate according to the 2009 high point, there will be almost 85% increase in PE in the future.

Taking into account the growth of performance, the index even reached the year 2009.

It will double again! So, according to the overall bull market, the bull market is only in the first half.

Then compare the turnover rate. If you only look at the turnover, A shares now seem to be able to produce fear of heights on a daily basis. However, if the turnover rate is considered, it is not high.

According to this week's trading activity, the annual turnover rate is 415%, compared with 3478 in 2009, 489% in 2007, and 903% at 6124 in 2007. In fact, the biggest turnover rate in 2007 is not 6124 points, but near 4200 in May.

How to interpret in the two quarter? The two quarter of the past is usually the quarter of adjustment. The proverb of "five poor, six and seven must turn over" comes from this, and this is the policy landing effect after the end of the "two sessions" in the past few years.

There is a great deal of adjustment.

On the one hand, on the one hand, the macroeconomic policy is positive. It has cut interest rates 2 times, comprehensively lowered 1 times, and raised the deficit rate to 2.3% in 2015. The prime minister said that there were still many tools in the toolbox. On the other hand, investors expected growth expectations to be low, and GDP was expected to be 7.1% or 6.9% in the one or two quarter.

In terms of technical graphics, after the market broke through at 3478 points, there was no intensive paction area and resistance level before 4300 o'clock.

Taking into account the frequent injection of good policies and favorable expectations for China's stock market, banks will first get the license of securities dealers, followed by the entry of pensions into the final stage, and then trillions of local government bond swaps, which can be said to be enough to change the trend of A shares. Once fully implemented, they will fundamentally change the current policy and financial situation of the A share market.

On Tuesday, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said at the "China Development Summit Forum 2015" that the flexibility of the current QFII plan is not enough, and that the reform will be carried out.

And the QDII system.

Analysts believe that the quota restrictions may be released, and the scale of QFII and QDII will expand rapidly.

It is expected that the two quarter is expected to rise to 4300 points in the one or two quarter, followed by a concussion for a period of one or two weeks.

Short term market has entered the state of capital push, and the capital driven market must pay close attention to two key indicators: first, quantity and price, first, as long as the volume can continue to enlarge, the trend will not end. Once the amount can not keep up with the index, for example, the index will continue to increase in many trading days, and the quantity will continue to shrink, we must pay attention to whether the trend is coming to an end.

The second is the regulatory factor. Every round of mad cow's rest is often caused by the suppression of regulatory policies. The most famous example is the "5. 30" of 2007. Last year, the blue chip stock market was also ended under the supervision and suppression.

Once the management again appears to reduce the leverage of the capital, or to crack down on speculation, it will affect the market, but now the market is the return of blue chips, which has experienced a wave of adjustment for more than 2 months, and the market is not yet in the frenzied stage.

In the two quarter, we should pay attention to the risk of small and medium capitalization stocks represented by gem.

Recently, all kinds of leading varieties such as all education have been widely questioned by the market. Everything has a degree. Excessive will inevitably lead to counterforce. When a certain cycle is completed, there will inevitably be some factors to accelerate its end. For example, last year, the securities and Futures Commission examined the two wave of blue chip bull market, which is the first wave of the blue chip bull market.

Considering that this theme speculation has entered a period of madness, the valuation of many companies has overdrawn the development of the next few decades. Once the theme is hyped up, it may be the "5. 30" reappearance in 2007. Friends playing theme stocks should be prepared to hold up for more than ten years or even have no income for life.