Stock Market Investment: Compliance Trend Is Better Than Guess Inflection Point.

The bull market trend is better than guess the inflection point.

The current increase, market value /GDP, market value /M2 is too small, incremental capital market trend, value shares and growth stocks rose.

Epicycle

It is the result of many factors such as social change, technological progress, policy orientation, asset allocation and so on. It is the pformation of cattle and the reform of cattle. Although there are twists and turns in the bull market, there is no worry at present.

Haitong pointed out that any round of bull market will encounter twists and turns, but there is no need to worry.

First of all, since March, the second acceleration of capital market and the breakthroughs in stock index have come from the policy warm tone.

Growth downward pressure is still large, monetary, fiscal, and real estate policies have relaxed in March. At the end of this month, they may continue to move forward steadily. Finally, the March FOMC meeting minutes released last week showed that Fed officials were divided on whether to raise interest rates in June, and 3 months later.

The impact of overseas financial risks and capital flows is still early.

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The improper analogy of the sentence -- robbing the rich and helping the poor is probably what the management is doing now.

The opening of one person and one family is not good but bad.

Despite the view of many institutions, the cost of securities firms is expected to decline after opening up: for securities firms, the current capital market back-end account opening system is three sets, and securities companies spend a lot of costs in order to connect to the three systems. After integration, only one system is maintained, and accounts maintenance will be reduced.

But have you ever thought that the brokerage business of securities companies will be greatly affected, because the opening of one person and many households means that investors can easily choose cheaper brokerage firms to commission. This change will open a commission war between brokerages, and the impact will be great.

What's the impact? Brokerage accounts for about 37% of the total, of which Everbright is 46.42%, followed by Changjiang Securities 45.43%, followed by state securities (44.81%), Huatai Securities (41.42%) and Dongxing securities (40.15%).

Once the commissions war is launched, nearly 40% of the revenues of the securities companies are almost completely compressed.

The expectation of compression is exactly in line with the reform direction of management for the big financial industry.

We can not regard the opening of one person as a separate event.

The other two things behind this incident are: the continuous acceleration of interest rate liberalization in the banking sector - the existing policy deposit insurance system has been implemented - and the layout of the mixed financial reform has come down.

What does this series of reforms mean? It is very simple that the era of financial industry's money making has ended. As the lifeblood of the economy, earning money means that the financial sector does not serve the real economy but the vampire entity economy. Therefore, to compress and weaken the profit margin of the bank interest rate and the brokerage business of the brokerage firm is to give profits to the entity enterprises.

However, some people do not agree with this statement. They believe that the opening of one person to one family and the emergence of private banks and Internet finance are the existing financial structure that managers want to shuffle through the Internet mode.

But can Internet Co get financial or brokerage licence to have a big impact? I don't think so.

First, the securities license issued by management is definitely not a full licence. Just like private banks, Internet companies will have many restrictions even if they get them, so it is very difficult to form a comprehensive substitute for the existing securities companies.

Second, what is the core value of the financial industry? It is the pricing of risks and the linkage of the whole industrial chain. For example, securities firms and banks can be investment banks, and they can make capital management. Through self trading, the whole industry chain can be opened up through research, which is absolutely impossible for Internet Co.

Most people think that finance is the business cycle after getting customer resources, but in fact, the potential of big finance is obviously higher than that.

Therefore, Internet Co can not subvert banks and subvert securities companies even more.

Of course, Internet Co can get a very good development through cooperation with securities companies. This is no problem.

But in the hope of subverting securities companies, neither the capital nor the mechanism nor the policies can support the development of securities companies in the short term in a relatively large scale in the Internet Co.

So finally, the opening up of one man and one household and the reform of interest rate marketization are not simply to suppress the traditional financial industry, but to promote the financial benefits to the entity, and the trend of internationalization and marketization reform.

From 2007 to 2014, China's M2 balance increased from 40 trillion to 120 trillion. The final choice of these funds is the stock market which is still in the low-lying land.

If the stock market is currently attracting funds, it is only the funds for speculation in the property market and antiques and investment trusts.

With the marketization of interest rates, the new wave will come from the redistribution of investment path of China's 30 trillion savings fund in the future.

Before the redistribution pattern is formed, the opening up of one person and one family will promote the innovation and pformation of the brokerage business. Undoubtedly, it is a good way for the savings shops to choose the direction of the savings fund.

From this perspective, Zhou Xiaochuan said earlier that "investing in the stock market is an investment in the real economy" can in fact be regarded as the direction of China's future investment and financing path pformation, which is passed by the senior bank by the governor of the central bank.

In a word, the fact is that A shares will eventually become a financing pool to undertake massive social capital, and the further heating of this direct financing is conducive to the redistribution of the entire social wealth.

Combined with one person and one household and interest rate marketization reform, it can be understood that the money earned by banks and banks in the past was returned to enterprises and the public.