Crude Oil Rebound Set PTA Medium Term Rally

Recently, with the rise of crude oil, the support role of crude oil for PTA costs has been enhanced. Whether from naphtha to PX or from PX to PTA, profits have been extremely compressed, crude oil and PTA. Relevance Will enhance.

"From the historical price trend, PTA Prices are closely following the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The current situation is: the recent rebound in crude oil market after two bottoms is one of the main reasons for the PTA rebound. Yang Yanli, a researcher at China Aviation futures energy and chemical industry, predicted that the crude oil will be cautious in the two quarter. In the short and medium term, PTA will continue to follow the pace of crude oil.

She said that for the two quarter crude oil cautiously bullish analysis logic is briefly summarized as follows: first, there is technical adjustment demand in the US dollar index. From the monthly chart, the US dollar index line has been closed for ninth consecutive months, which is rare in the historical trend of the US dollar index. In addition, judging from the symmetry of the market, from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2004, US dollar index In the declining market, the US dollar index fell below 100 full digit during the period, from June 2003 to August, there was a three month rally. If the market trend is symmetrical, then there will be a 1-3 month adjustment period at the time when the US dollar index is 100 full digit. The two is the influence of geopolitical factors, including the aggravation of turbulence in Libya, Iraq and Syria, and the impact of the US and Iran nuclear agreements and the Yemen war on the supply of crude oil in stages. Three, the number of us oil drilling platforms has declined for 19 consecutive weeks. It is estimated that the US crude oil output will reach the peak in the year of 4-5.

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